2012/08/27

NOAA/NCDC and BEST compared to Watts Favourite



Now found some US data (presumed ALL US not just CONUS) up to 2012 from NOAA
 http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

These are monthly (like BEST) and so to fit with USCRN/USRCRN daily dat I have assumed a months worth of constant temperature for both these sources. This data is then passed through the same processing as the USCRN/USRCRN to produce the plot.

As can be seen the NOAA data for June is significantly higher than USCRN so Tony's claim of "not the warmest July" may be correct. However the overall trend of NOAA is significantly downwards compared tio the upwards trend of USCRN.

This being the case Tony may be backing the wrong horse in this race. USCRN (his ACCURATE) data stream show continual warming over the last decade. Time will tell (hopefully before disater strikes!).


 
uscrn 60 days average
noaa 200 day average
Best 80 day average
 




2012/08/26

The Hypocrisy of Watts

A beautiful post from Tony:

First let’s look at Overpeck’s ugly email about Inhofe and big oil, plus a death wish for Oklahoma residents, bold mine:
Wish Oklahoma was on the Gulf Coast – then these guys might have a more realistic view. Until then, they’ll just do what the oil industry wants them to do, I guess.
best, peck
Now lets look at Tony's blog:

Some examples of the very ugly DEATH wishes passed on Watts' blog, (and ok'd for publication )


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/26/admiration-for-the-catlin-explorers/#comment-95597
Rachelle Young says:
March 26, 2009 at 8:52 pm
I would be content to see all three of them freeze to death or be eaten by ‘endangered’ polar bears 
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/28/catlin-crew-out-of-time/#comment-112321
Chemist says:
April 28, 2009 at 4:48 pm
I’ll be the one to say it: I hope they die so that their deaths will draw attention to the truth of this issue. If they succeed, then it will be just another propaganda
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/04/question-for-catlin-arctic-survey-what-happens-to-the-fuel-drums/#comment-115652
Daniel L. Taylor says: May 5, 2009 at 6:51 am
…Maybe I’m just a cold hearted SoB, but in my opinion they need to freeze to death on that ice. The world needs to see the headline “Global Warming scientists …
I’m sorry, but if the deaths of everyone on that ice survey team helps raise awareness of and opposition to the global warming political train wreck then so be it. It needs to happen.
These posts still exist on his blog - amazing!!
.


The Effect Of Anomaly reference period on Temperature Plots

Much rubbish is talked in some locations about how the reference period for anomaly plots is chosen to to create worse temperature rises than reality.

Here is a plot showing monthly data from UK station temperatures. These are converted into anomalies by taking 30 Januarys from the start year, averaging the temperature and then subtracting this from each January to create an anomaly. This is repeated for each month to create the full plot.

This method shows how met. stations are warming and allows a reasonable average anomaly to be calculated over dissimilar (envirnonmentally) stations. It also removes the annual fluctuation in temperature reducing the need to filter this out.

The plot shows 5 different start years from 1951 to 1991 (the latter only having 20 years averaged for the anomaly calculation.

As can be seen all that happens is the plot gets shifted up and down the chart. The wiggles and the slope are constant.

NO ADDITIONAL WARMING is created by changing the reference period. The reference period is not relevant unless the distribution of temperatures throughout the year changes.

2012/08/22

USCRN compared to Best

Plot showing Best and USCRN data.
Best is monthly data Average
USCRN is daily Average

Quite a good match (bearing in mind Best is7500 stations and USCRN is 40)

The match becomes better as more uscrn stations come on line

The slope of linear trend is -ve in Best +ve in uscrn mainly due to Best data terminating in 2011


Berkley Data Here



2012/08/19

USCRN/USRCRN - The CONUS data

Data from the contiguous states of USA.

This is derived from all locations that have reported data from 2003 onwards. The more rescently commissioned sites therefore do not appear

The average plot shows a temperature increase of 0.3K per decade
The maximum plot shows a temperature increase of 0.6K per decade
The minimum plot shows a temperature increase of 0.14K per decade

The main plots are averaged over 10 days
The spaghetti plot is averaged over 100 days

It is interesting to note that the temperature increase since 2010 is much greater than that for the whole plot the final plot here shows a temperature increase of 6.8K per decade (PS. I realise that this is more weather than climate!)

How will watts handle this?!!!!!!!








And a final a couple with longer averaging
1. showing a 200 day averaged max chart


2. showing a 400 day averaged spaghetti plot


The last 3 years:


2012/08/17

The Reliabilty of Nuclear stations compared to Wind Power

Warm seawater forces Conn. nuclear plant shutdown
By Stephen Singer on August 13, 2012
HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — Connecticut's nuclear power plant shut one of two units on Sunday because seawater used to cool down the plant is too warm.
Unit 2 of Millstone Power Station has occasionally shut for maintenance or other issues, but in its 37-year history it has never gone down due to excessively warm water, spokesman Ken Holt said on Monday.
Water from Long Island Sound is used to cool key components of the plant and is discharged back into the sound. The water cannot be warmer than 75 degrees and following the hottest July on record has been averaging 1.7 degrees above the limit, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said.
The federal agency issued an "emergency license amendment" last week, allowing Millstone, a subsidiary of Dominion Resources Inc., to use an average temperature of several readings.
"It wasn't enough to prevent us from shutting down," Holt said.
================================

River temperature forces nuclear plant to 50 percent power


Not even TVA can beat the heat.
On Wednesday, the utility had to bring a third reactor at Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant down to 50 percent power to avoid environmental sanctions because the water in the Tennessee River — where the plant's cooling water is discharged — already was at 90 degrees.
"When the river's ambient temperature reaches 90 degrees, we can't add any heat to it," said TVA's nuclear spokesman Ray Golden.
Similar problems last summer forced the Tennessee Valley Authority to spent $50 million for replacement power, according to Golden. The extra expense translated to something between 50 cents and $1 on most electric bills several months later, officials have said.
To avoid similar heat problems this year, TVA in October began construction on a seventh cooling tower at Browns Ferry, which is near Athens, Ala., and officials expected the $80 million super tower to be complete in June or July.
But weather stormed that plan, too.
"It was delayed because of the impact of the tornadoes, and some spring storms and some heavy rains," Golden said. "It's probably about 98 percent complete, and we hope it will be in service in the next one to two months."

=================================
August 24, 2010 By
90 Degree River Shuts Down Southern Nuclear Plant
Blue Living Ideas

       As a result of the record high temperatures engulfing the South (and much of the planet) the Tennessee Valley Authority has had to shut down its largest nuclear power plant for the 40th day since  July 8th, the TimesFreePress reports. The Tennessee River in Alabama is just much too hot.

================================
Water shortages hit US power supply
As the United States' extended heat wave and drought threaten to raise global food prices, energy production is also feeling the pressure. Across the nation, power plants are becoming overheated and shutting down or running at lower capacity; drilling operations struggle to get the water they need, and crops that would become biofuel are withering.
While analysts say the US should survive this year without major blackouts, more frequent droughts and increased population size will continue to strain power generation in the future.
Power plants are a hidden casualty of droughts, says Barbara Carney of the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia, because they are completely dependent on water for cooling and make up about half the water usage in the US. That makes them vulnerable in a heat wave. If water levels in the rivers that cool them drop too low, the power plant – already overworked from the heat – won't be able to draw in enough water. In addition, if the cooling water discharged from a plant raises already-hot river temperatures above certain thresholds, environmental regulations require the plant to shut down.
At least four nuclear plants had to shut down in July for these reasons. Nationwide, nuclear generation is at its lowest in a decade, with the plants operating at only 93 per cent of capacity.
Nuclear is the thirstiest power source. According to NETL, the average nuclear plant that generates 12.2 million megawatt hours of electricity requires far more water to cool its turbines than other power plants. Nuclear plants need 2725 litres of water per megawatt hour for cooling. Coal or natural gas plants need, on average, only 1890 and 719 litres respectively to produce the same amount of energy.
==============================
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/20/health/20iht-nuke.1.5788480.html?pagewanted=all
Officials at Électricité de France have been preparing for a possible rerun of a ferocious heat wave that struck during 2003, the hottest summer on record in France, when temperatures of some rivers rose sharply and a number of reactors had to curtail output or shut down altogether.
The French company operates 58 reactors - the majority on ecologically sensitive rivers like the Loire.
During the extreme heat of 2003 in France, 17 nuclear reactors operated at reduced capacity or were turned off. Électricité de France was forced to buy power from neighboring countries on the open market, where demand drove the price of a megawatt hour as high as €1,000, or $1,350. Average prices in France during summer months ordinarily are about €95 per megawatt hour.
The heat wave cost Électricité de France an extra €300 million. The state-owned company "swallowed it as a one-off cost of doing business in extreme circumstances," Philippe Huet, an executive vice president at Électricité de France, said.
===============================

So Just like wind, nuclear has to shut down when needed most.

OK so how about wind requiring all that backup running continuously in case the wind drops?

Well, one scram on a nuclear plant will require the generation of 500MW to 1GW of instantly available power (spinning reserve) - you cannot  allow supply interruption (May 2008 outage National Grid).
Wind does not fail instantly everywhere so a gradual decrease in power has to be compensated by conventional. In general, most stations running under warm start conditions will be producing the required power when needed. There is probably no need for spinning reserve as wind backup - the met office seem reasonably accurate predicting a few hours ahead).

lets look at UK National Grid data for a few days:
10th August to 17th Agust 2012 data



Note that the peak delivered is 15GW greater than the lowest delivered. The National Grid may not like this normal situation but the certainly find no difficulty providing the power.

It would therefore seem obvious that at least 15GW of solar and wind could be accomodated. (solar of course would remove some of the daily peak).

From an earlier post here:
National grids reserves
From wiki
There is generally about 1.5 GW of so called spinning reserve
NG pays to have up to 8.5 GW of additional capacity available to start immediately but not running, referred to as warming or hot standby, that is ready to be used at short notice which could take half an hour to 2 hours to bring on line
A similar amount of power stations (8–10 GW by capacity) are operable from a cold start in about 12 hours for coal burning stations, and 2 hours for gas fired stations


Short term and instantaneous load and generation response mechanisms

The national grid is organized, and power stations distributed, in such a way as to cope with sudden, unforeseen and dramatic changes in either load or generation. It is designed to cope with the simultaneous or nearly simultaneous failure of 2 × 660 MW sets
Spinning Reserve National Grid pays to keep a number of large power station generators partly loaded.
Pumped Storage Pumped storage as in Dinorwig Power Station is also used in addition to spinning reserve to keep the system in balance.

Frequency Service For large perturbations, which can exceed the capability of spinning reserve, NG (National Grid plc) who operate the national grid and control the operations of power stations (but does not own them) has a number of partners who are known as NG Frequency Service, National Grid Reserve Service or reserve service participants. These are large power users such as steel works, cold stores, etc. who are happy to enter into a contract to be paid to be automatically disconnected from power supplies whenever grid frequency starts to fall.
Standing Reserve Operating closely with NG Frequency Response is the National Grid Reserve Service now called STOR or Short Term Operating Reserve.[9] NG Standing Reserve participants are small diesel engine owners, and Open Cycle gas turbine generator owners, who are paid to start up and connect to the grid within 20 minutes from the time Frequency Response customers are called to disconnect. These participants must be reliable and able to stay on and run for an hour or so, with a repetition rate of 20 hours.

National Grid has about 500 MW of diesel generators on contract, and 150 MW of gas turbines with about 2,000 MW of disconnect-able load.[9]

Sources of intermittency on the UK National Grid The largest source of intermittency on the UK National Grid is the power stations; in fact, the single largest source is Sizewell B nuclear power station. Whenever Sizewell B is operating the entire 1.3 GW output is liable to stop at any time without warning. Its capacity is 2.16% of the national grid maximum demand, making it the single largest power source and therefore the largest source of intermittency. Despite this issue, NG readily copes with it using the methods outlined above including the use of diesel engines. An industry-wide rate of unplanned scrams (shutdowns) of 0.6 per 7000 hours critical means that such a shut-down without warning is expected to happen about once every year and a half.[11] However, no matter how low the rate of unplanned scrams, this is largely irrelevant - what matters is the fact that it can and does happen, and measures have to be in place to deal with it.

In 2008 both Sizewell and Longannet power stations both stopped unexpectedly within minutes of each other, in fact causing widespread power failures, as substations were tripped off using prearranged under-frequency relays.[12]

Reports of May 2008 outage
National grid https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/ofgem-publications/41426/nationalgrid-systemeventsof27mayfordswg16july.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20100206093023/http://nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/E19B4740-C056-4795-A567-91725ECF799B/32165/PublicFrequencyDeviationReport.pdf


So what about all those rare earth magnets required in wind turbines and of course there is all that noise from gears being tortured? And wont they make the network more unreliable?

Well not all turbines are created equal

Take a look at:


ENERCON WECs produce clean energy without neodymium
29.04. 2011

ENERCON wind energy converters (WECs) generate electricity in an environmentally friendly way without the use of the controversial element, neodymium. The gearless WEC design on which all WEC types – from the E-33/330 kW to the E-126/7.5 MW – are based includes a separately excited annular generator. The magnetic fields required by the generator to produce electricity are created electrically. By design, and unlike the majority of competing products, ENERCON WECs do without permanent magnets whose production requires neodymium.

Neodymium has made the headlines recently because its extraction partly involves significant environmental damage. China, where neodymium-containing rocks are quarried in mines, is the main supplier of this so-called rare earth element. According to investigations by Germany’s NDR TV station, separation of neodymium from mined rocks results in toxic waste products (Menschen und Schlagzeilen and Panorama television magazines aired on 27 and 28 April). In addition, radioactive uranium and thorium are released by the mining process. These substances find their way into the ground water, heavily contaminating plant and animal life. They are seen as harmful to humans. According to the reports, part of the locals at the neodymium production sites in Baotou in northern China are already seriously ill.

ENERCON feels that these environmental and health aspects support its choice of WEC design. “We are a high-tech company that sets great store by environmental protection,” says ENERCON Managing Director Hans-Dieter Kettwig. “Our choice to rely on separately excited generators was the right one, not only from a technological but also from an environmental point of view.” According to Kettwig, renewable energies need to be viewed in their entirety in order to offer a convincing alternative. Producing clean energy is one thing; however, sustainability in production is just as important.
Helps the network recover:
Staying connected when grid problems occurMost transmission networks and ever more distribution grids require wind energy converters to remain connected to the grid in the event of grid short circuits. Like conventional power plants, wind turbines are not allowed to suddenly disconnect from the grid during voltage dips or overvoltage caused by grid problems. ENERCON wind turbines with the optional ENERCON UVRT feature have this capacity. No matter what type of short circuit occurs, ENERCON wind turbines can ‘ride through’ faults for several seconds, even if they were operating at rated power before the fault. This is also possible if the wind turbine voltage completely breaks down as a result of a power system failure. These outstanding power plant properties have been certified by independent institutes during actual grid fault testing. Flexible setting options offer maximum performance according to the respective grid operator’s specifications or to the project’s framework conditions.
Depending on the selected parameters, the wind turbine can feed in either mainly active or reactive power to maintain grid voltage. If necessary, voltage-dependent reactive current can even be supplied to the grid; this current can be maximum rated current as stipulated by the latest German grid code. If desired or required, fault ride-through is also possible without power feed-in. The ENERCON wind turbine remains in operation during the fault. After the grid problem has been resolved and grid voltage has been restored, the wind turbine can immediately resume power feed-in. Thus the ENERCON Undervoltage Ride-Through feature facilitates adaptable settings in order to meet grid standards (e. g. of the German
Association of Energy and Water Industries) and to maximise the amount of installable wind farm power.






2012/08/16

Arctic sea ice 2012-08-15

After some large losses it looks as if the minimum may be around the 4.15e6 sq km








2012/08/12

USCRN/USRCRN - "perfect" data and how it compares

A quick look at a few CONUS (contiguous US states) data

"ITS WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT!"


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/08/an-incovenient-result-july-2012-not-a-record-breaker-according-to-the-new-noaancdc-national-climate-reference-network/

Tony has said that this date is as good as it is going to get as far as temperatures go.
He has invalidly compared USCRN with the older ghcn network using absolute values (does not get rid of any offsets between the data sets). And concludes this July is not a record breaker.

Leaving "records" aside this is the plot for 12 of the stations reporting from 2002 to current date (daily data)

A note: some of the stations reporting early in 2002 have much missing data that seems to give a high temperature anomaly in the first few months. This has been left in.

These are a simple arithmetic average of the 12 station data which individually have been averaged over 20days

This is a first stab at these plots so they may change if errors are found

Data from:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/uscrn/products/daily01
plots updated - more data - corrected averaging

Max temperature plot


Linear fit gives 0.774C/decade


Min temperature plot


Linear fit gives 0..22C per dacade


Average temperature plot


Linear fit gives 0.44C per decade


Spaghetti plot showing station names


As a comparison here is the plot for crutem3v from wft

Over the same period a negative slope!

I wonder if Tony will reject the USCRN data in the same manner as he tried to kill the Best data!



2012/08/03

Climate Audit at Last Back On track

After wasting his time on an ignominious essay from Tony McIntyre gets back on track doing what he does so well.
Not science.
Nothing to do with climate.
Nothing to do with auditing.
Nothing to do with statistics.

He's frothing at the mouth on his quest to embarrass scientists who wrote emails where they robustly discussed science.

A brilliant invention - emails - as quick as voice, you have a copy of what was discussed, you can send data and plots. It is not as formal as a letter and you feel you can tell someone their ideas are wrong without causing real hurt.

Then along comes a slavering pack of underworld denizens who cannot kill climate science with their own research - they do ABSOLUTELY NONE - but they can stop  real scientists working using FOI attacks. They then attempt to destroy their science (in the minds of the public) by quoting from stolen Emails that the authors thought were private robust discussions.

It must be difficult finding a private channel where these discussions can now be made!

It is also interesting that Tallbloke has been away from blogging for weeks:

Roger Andrews says:
TB
Welcome back. I guess the Norfolk fuzz released you when they wrapped up their enquiry, right? ;-)

Or is it he has been going over the next batch of emails with FOI looking for the good bits!!



From Tony a call to Arms:

The secret letter UEA and CRU doesn’t want us (or anybody else) to read


Uh oh.
Steve McIntyre has written an eviscerating essay about a secret letter circulated by the IPCC to UEA/CRU, which they are refusing to divulge, because it will:
...
I suggest that all hands immediately work on FOI requests to UEA requesting this letter. We might also want to start a betting pool on how long they’ll be able to hold out.
Somewhere, we have the procedure for FOI requests in the UK, but I’ve misplaced it. Sharp readers will likely find it and post in comments, so I can update this post.
========================
Oh dear the man seems out of control:

  1. Please don’t file FOI requests on this matter to UEA. That’s already been done and is under appeal. Further efforts doing the same thing will make it more difficult in the future. Please don’t do this.
    On the other hand, you may wish to consider steps in your own jurisdiction.
    REPLY: I’ve made some changes to the text which will likely yield better results – Anthony
-----------------------------
Is this a way of hiding the failure of Tony's paper?




Latest Arctic Ice data

Data plotted to 2nd August (valid to 1st August - area usually changes upwards when next averaged)

Ice loss seems on target to be minimum at around 4.55e6 km^2 this year




Since the projected minimum is likely to be greater than 2007 This will allow Tony and followers to claim 5 years of arctic ice  recovery!

2012/07/31

Tony - Free the Data, Free the Code

Well Watts drummed up phenominal interest with his closing wuwt posting scam. Then came the letdown - it's another surface station project writeup. Hummmm!

Hopefully Tony can provide at least the following data he used:

A list of all (ALL qualities) stations
Accurate co-ordinates for site so that Measurement machine can be identified at its centre.
Type of measurement device
Details of any changes/calibrations
Criteria used for Watts' classification for that site
Date site was surveyed - date of Google imagery.

We need this data long before publication!

The data seems to forgotten that TOBS (time of observation) needs to be added before comparison to USHCN is made:
Steve: allowing for a TOBS adjustment is reasonable enough. When max min are read daily, if they are read in late afternoon near the daily maximum, a hot day can end up contributing to the maxima for two consecutive days and the cooler next day not counted. The adjustment is made relative to theoretical midnight readings

It seems that McIntyre thinks he should have done more work before allowing his name to be added to the author list!

Steve: As I mentioned, I’ve been involved with this paper for only a few days. You know my personal policies. I did some limited statistical analysis, which, to my considerable annoyance, I need to revisit. As you know, I don’t have a whole lot of interest in temperature data, which is an absolute sink for time. So I’m going to either have to do the statistics from the ground up according to my standards or not touch it anymore.
Steve: I was only on the paper a short time and I overlooked an important issue, which Anthony had paid insufficient attention to. I should have known better – my bad. I’m very annoyed at myself.
Steve McIntyre Posted Jul 31, 2012 at 2:07 PM | Permalink | Reply
In my original look at this information (2007) here, I used TOBS data. I need to revisit this work.

Another  "author" falls by the wayside!
https://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/summary-of-two-game-changing-papers-watts-et-al-2012-and-mcnider-et-al-2012/

UPDATE #2: To make sure everyone clearly recognizes my involvement with both papers, I provided Anthony suggested text and references for his article [I am not a co-author of the Watts et al paper], and am a co-author on the McNider et al paper.

2012/07/21

Tony's WUWT Non-Science

Recorded, it surely cannot be allowd to stay:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/21/some-thoughts-on-radiative-transfer-and-ghgs/

Some thoughts on radiative transfer and GHG’s



Absorptions bands in the Earth's atmosphere cr...
Absorptions bands in the Earth’s atmosphere created by greenhouse gases and the resulting effects on transmitted radiation. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Guest post by Reed Coray
The following example illustrates the issues I have with reasoning often used to argue that increasing the amount of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere will increase both the Earth’s surface temperature and the Earth’s atmosphere temperature. Immediately following is a direct quote from URL
The present situation is that there has been an increase in infrared-absorbing gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Energy that would normally escape into space is absorbed by these molecules, thus heating the atmosphere and spreading through convection currents. The average temperature of the atmosphere has increased 0.25 °C since 1980, mainly attributed to an increase in infrared-absorbing gases in the atmosphere.
Although the above statement makes no direct reference to Earth surface temperature, I believe it carries the implication that greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere increase the Earth’s surface temperature.
I make two comments: the first is relevant only if the above implication is valid, the second is relevant independent of the validity of the implication. First, placing matter adjacent to a warm surface such that the matter is capable of absorbing/blocking radiation to space from the warm surface can lead to a decrease in the warm surface’s temperature. Second, increasing the amount of the absorbing/blocking matter can lower the temperature of the absorbing/blocking material.
Take for example an internal combustion engine whose metal surface is exposed to a vacuum. In addition to doing useful work, the engine produces thermal energy (heat). That thermal energy will produce a rise in the temperature of the engine’s surface such that in energy-rate equilibrium the rate energy is radiated to space from the engine’s surface is equal to the rate thermal energy is generated within the engine. By attaching radiating plates to the engine’s surface, some of the energy radiated to space from the engine’s original surface will be absorbed/blocked by the plates;
not true only radiation leaving the surface at some acute angle will be re-absorbed
 but because thermal energy can be transferred from the engine to the plates via both radiation and conduction, the temperature of the engine’s original surface will be lowered.
Wrong - if less radiation is leaving the engine gets hotter
 This is the principle of an air-cooled engine[1]: provide a means other than radiation of transferring heat from an engine to a large surface area from which heat can be removed via a combination of conduction, convection and radiation, and the engine’s surface temperature will be lowered.
If plates at a temperature lower than the original engine surface temperature are attached to the engine, it’s true that the temperature of the plates will increase to establish energy-rate equilibrium. Once energy-rate equilibrium is established, however, increasing the plate radiating area (adding additional matter that blocks more of the energy radiated from the original engine surface) will likely lower the plate temperature.
Depends on conduction of fin and relative temperature of cooling air and fin
Thus, blocking the amount of surface radiation escaping to space does not necessarily increase the surface temperature; and increasing the amount of radiation blocking material does not necessarily increase the temperature of that material. In both cases (the Earth/Earth-atmosphere and the internal combustion engine in a vacuum), the heat eventually escapes to space–otherwise the temperature of the Earth’s surface and the engine would continue to rise indefinitely.
All that is just garbage. All solids radiate (accoding to its temperature and emissivity - not necessarily fitting a black body curve). Take away any GHGs and the surface of the earth radiates directly to space with no back radiation and no impeding of radiation to the background temp of space.  O2 an N2 and H2 etc. do not stop significant radiated energy but they will be warmed by the earth - none of the O2 N2 will be able to radiate this heat to space. The temperature of the O2 and N2 will get NO HOTTER than the surface of the Earth, but they WILL NOT enable the earth to heat up further. Add GHGs and each molecule will "absorb" and "retransmit" radiation. The radiation retransmitted can be in any direction but nearly 50%- hits the earth and 50%+ goes to space. The 50% hitting the earth is 50% that would have escaped had there been no GHG. -The earth warmed by the sun cools slower because of GHG presence. The earth conducts to the rest of the atmosphere warming it.
 The difference isn’t that the energy doesn’t eventually escape to space (it does in both cases), the difference is in the path the energy takes to reach space. The amount of generated thermal energy in conjunction with the path the thermal energy takes to get to space determines temperatures along the path; and adding more material may increase or decrease those temperatures. To say that “Energy that would normally escape into space is absorbed by these molecules, thus heating the atmosphere…” by itself is unwarranted; because an equivalent statement for the case of adding extra plate material to the engine would be “Energy that would normally escape to space from an engine with small attached plates is absorbed by additional plate material, thus heating the plates…” For air-cooled engines, this statement is not true—otherwise the plate surface area of air-cooled engines would be as small as possible.
WHAT!!!!
It’s fairly easy to visualize why (a) adding thermally radiating plates to an air-cooled engine might decrease the engine’s surface temperature, and (b) increasing the area of the radiating plates might decrease the plate temperature. It’s not so easy to visualize, and may not be true, why (a) adding greenhouse gases to the Earth’s atmosphere decreases the Earth’s surface temperature; and (b) increasing the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases lowers the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere. I now present one possible argument. I do not claim that the argument is valid for greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, but I do claim that the argument might be valid, and can only be refuted by an analysis more detailed than simply claiming “Energy that would normally escape into space is absorbed by these molecules, thus heating the atmosphere.”
I do not believe photons absorbed by GHGs heat the atmosphere The photons emitted from GHGs eventually(perhaps after many absorbtion/retransmittions eithe leave the system or hit the earth warming it. The warm earth heats the atmosphere
If we assume that (a) matter cannot leave the Earth/Earth-atmosphere system, and (b) non-greenhouse gases radiate negligible energy to space, then for a non-greenhouse gas atmosphere the only way thermal energy can leave the Earth/Earth-atmosphere system to space is via radiation from the surface of the Earth. The rate radiation leaves the surface is in part a function of both the area and temperature of the surface. For a greenhouse gas atmosphere, energy can leave the Earth/Earth-atmosphere system to space both via radiation from the Earth’s surface and radiation from greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Suppose it is true that the density of greenhouse gases near the Earth’s surface is such that radiation emitted from low-altitude greenhouse gases does not directly escape to space, but is in part directed towards the Earth’s surface and in part absorbed by other atmospheric greenhouse gases. As the atmospheric greenhouse gas density decreases with increasing altitude, radiation emitted from high-altitude greenhouse gases can directly escape to space.
Now it’s not impossible that since (a) in addition to radiation, heat is transferred from the Earth’s surface to greenhouse gases via conduction, and (b) convection currents (i) circulate the heated greenhouse gases to higher altitudes where energy transfer to space can take place and (ii) return cooler greenhouse gases to the Earth’s surface, that the process of heat transfer away from the Earth’s surface via greenhouse gases is more efficient than simple radiation from the Earth’s surface.
Heated molecules share heat by conduction. In space there is nothing to conduct to. No heat is transfered. What is transfered to space is radiation, From photons absorbed by GHGs and from photons emitted from earth that are not touched by GHGs (wrong wavelength)
 Many engines are cooled using this concept. Specifically, a coolant is brought into contact with a heated surface which raises the coolant’s temperature via conduction and radiation, and the coolant is moved to a location where thermal energy transfer away from the coolant to a heat sink is more efficient than direct thermal energy transfer from the heated surface to the heat sink.
One way to realize increased thermal transfer efficiency would be to use a coolant, such as greenhouse gases, that efficiently radiates energy in the IR band (i.e., radiates energy at temperatures around 500 K). Another way would be to spread the heated coolant over a large surface area. Since surface area increases with increasing altitude, thereby providing expanded “area” (in the case of a gas, expanded volume) from which radiation to space can occur, it’s not clear to me (one way or the other) that greenhouse gases won’t act as a “coolant” reducing both the temperatures of the Earth’s atmosphere and the Earth surface.
Ye Gods!, did Tony read this before publishing... or is this what he believes??!!!!!!

RGB loses his cool with a true sceptic (at last!)

rgbatduke says:


LET US HEAR WHAT YOU HAVE GOT TO CONTRIBUTE!
I may admit I may not always be right but sure as hell you lot do not even know the people you are quoting.

You not only aren’t “always right” in regard to radiation theory, you are so infinitely wrong that you are, quite seriously, almost stunning in any conversation. Worse, you haven’t a clue that you are clueless, and make your vastly incorrect statements to correct somebody that actually has a clue.
Here’s what I have to contribute. Light is electromagnetic radiation. Go on, look it up. The entire electromagnetic spectrum is light. Radio waves are light. Microwaves are light. Infrared radiation is light. Visible light is a narrow band of light. Ultraviolet radiation is light. X-rays are light. Finally, gamma rays are light. The only thing that differentiates a gamma ray from a radio wave is its frequency and wavelength, and those aren’t even invariant properties — one can in principle doppler shift a radio wave into an x-ray by moving through it fast enough.
Second, the only thing the human eye can see is light. I mean good God, man, why do you think they call it turning on the lights when you enter a dark room?
Third, radiation from the sun does not, for the most part “turn into light” only when it reaches our atmosphere. Again, this is so wrong it is difficult even know how to begin. Children understand this better than that. Sunlight is emitted as light by our very hot sun. It travels as light — both visible and invisible, an entire spectrum of light — through the near-vacuum in between the Sun and the Earth. When it reaches the Earth, in very crude terms some of it is reflected at some point or another by the atmosphere without losing (much) energy, some of it is transmitted, and some of it is absorbed. How much of each depends on a host of things — clouds reflect more energy back to space than clear dry air, but clouds and water vapor also absorb more on the way to the ground than clear dry air. Of the radiation that reaches the ground, some is reflected and again passes more or less completely out of the atmosphere without significant loss, and the rest is absorbed. Of the radiation that reaches the ocean, some is reflected at or near the upper surface, and virtually all the rest is absorbed.
Fourth, if you want to understand the way electromagnetic radiation is created, transmitted, absorbed, scattered, you have to begin by learning Maxwell’s Equations. Maxwell’s equations are the classical partial differential equations that describe the electromagnetic field. They aren’t complete — they are classical and atoms and molecules are really quantum mechanical — but to even think of understanding quantum electrodynamics it helps to start with classical electrodynamics. To understand classical electrodynamics, it would really help you to take a class in introductory physics one day, assuming that your calculus background is up to the task. Even in a first year intro physics course in E&M, like the one I am teaching right now, you would learn all of the things I listed above and more besides — I generally try to teach my students that transmitted electromagnetic power is the flux of the Poynting vector through the specified surface, for example, which is entirely apropos of the current conversation.
If you cannot afford a physics textbook, feel free to use the ones I’ve written — they are available for free online here:
and if you want to try to tackle real graduate level electrodynamics, you can try:
but be warned, it isn’t for the faint of heart and you’ll need a reasonable proficiency with partial differential equations and non-Abelian algebras and Lie groups to get through the book. A knowledge of tensors would also be very useful, but sadly few students (even physics graduate students) have much of one so the book tries to be self-contained in this regard. It is also intended to be the second semester of a two semester series, so it presumes you’ve already mastered the Poisson equation and spherical decompositions and magnetostatics and are ready to get on with Maxwell’s equations and true Electrodynamics.
Now “we lot” — by which I assume you means “warmists” used as a pejorative term — sometimes do know very, very well precisely of what we speak. I, for example, do. And I’m not a “warmist”, for that matter. That smacks of religion, and I can and do justify my opinions about almost anything all the way down to the microscopic level — or admit ignorance.
So it is from a state of very much non-ignorance that I repeat — your previous statement, criticizing the entirely correct statement of Mr. Hoffer who is also no warmist, merely a rational skeptic who doubts the alleged magnitude or importance of the GHE, not its very existence — was something that left anyone who read it very slightly dumber. I could feel my own brain cells reeling in shock from it. Radiation turning into light only when it hits the atmosphere? Eyes unable to see light? It made me feel that my entire professional career, spent teaching people far better than that, has been wasted. How is it even possible for a high school education to turn you out into the world that ignorant? I knew better in grade school.
So your statement was not only not a rebuttal of David Hoffer — it was an open insult to the entire US educational system. It was unamerican! Do you want the entire world to laugh at us?
Hence my unaccustomed vigor in striking down your contribution, which, you will note, I am continuing. I’m quite serious. You owe it to yourself, you owe it to simple honesty to crack a physics book and at least try to understand what electromagnetic radiation is before again entering a public debate on the subject and attempting to correct people that have actually studied it, or teach it.
But of course you won’t, will you? Neither will Greg House, or any of the others that make absurd statements about radiation being unable to be reflected back to a warm surface and thereby slow its cooling. It’s so startlingly ignorant a statement that it makes one want to simply throw one’s hands up in despair. Not even my suggestion to go buy a space blanket and wrap yourself in it to gain firsthand experience of “warming” by trapping your own body’s radiation — an “experiment” you can actually perform at home — will actually get you to do it. Or taking an ordinary light bulb and placing it in front of a sheet of plastic wrap, then in front of a sheet of aluminum foil, to see which one reflects more heat (and note well — reflects heat from something much cooler than the light bulb filament). I could probably think up a half dozen other table top experiments to demonstrate radiative heating and cooling — they are elementary school science fair stuff — but of course to you they can’t exist because you know radiation only turns into light when air molecules experience friction or some other long line of complete, utter, absurdities.
I do declare, with people like you “helping” the skeptical “cause”, it doesn’t need to be opposed — the real warmists of the world can just point at you and wait for people to stop laughing themselves to death. Which is a logical fallacy, of course — you can disbelieve in CAGW because a pink unicorn came to you in a dream and told you to and still be right, just as they can be supported by not entirely implausible arguments and still be wrong, and wise people look at the arguments themselves and not individuals — but it does make it all to easy for sensible skeptical arguments to be dismissed when there exist “skeptics” whose arguments are only a hair better than pink unicorns.
rgb




2012/07/20

CO2 and Crops

Just how will increased CO2 affect crops and in particular the nutritional value:
some research more will be added

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/101na6.pdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01511.x/pdf

http://public.wsu.edu/~wwql/reprints/295.pdf

http://iris-aff.dc.affrc.go.jp/jp/en/outcome/translation/analysis/Rice_Yield_Increases_and_Protein_Content_Decreases_in_FACE_-Free_Air_CO2_Enrichment-_Agricultural_Fields.pdf

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5980/899.full.pdf

http://si-pddr.si.edu/jspui/bitstream/10088/48/1/More%20Efficient%20Plants.pdf

http://88.167.97.19/albums/files/TMTisFree/Documents/Climate/The_CO2_fertilization_effect_higher_carbohydrate_production_and_retention_as_biomass_and_seed_yield.pdf


Looks like more plant mass, more grain, less %protein with increased CO2

So more fertilizer required for less protein but more carbohydrate.

Not sure that this is a good scenario!

Norfolk Police Q & A on the CRU Email Theft

The official Q and A from the Norfolk Police

http://www.norfolk.police.uk/newsevents/newsstories/2012/july/ueadatabreachinvestigation/idoc.ashx?docid=4af74555-e4c6-4984-a351-ff7cd546e366&version=-1


Operation Cabin Q&As The following questions and answers are an abridged version of Norfolk Constabulary’s Operation Cabin media briefing held on Thursday 19 July 2012.

How do you know it was an external hack?
In outline terms, we know it came via the internet from a number of different IP addresses, in various countries, which may have been proxy servers. The attack was, first of all, into the web server (CRUweb8) in the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the UEA. From there, a link was established to a CRU back-up server (CRUback3). It’s fair to say, the university has to draw the right balance between giving access to information – it’s an academic establishment and, as such, has a proportionate level of security which enables people to work remotely and access information to operate in that academic environment. As a consequence of the attack, the UEA has taken a number of measures and its ICT infrastructure now looks very different. We identified that the attackers breached several password layers to get through and they got to a position where they employed different methodologies to return the data. We identified a significant quantity of data that was taken in this way, certainly in excess of that which was subsequently published in the two files in 2009 and 2011. We’ve used the expression ‘sophisticated’ and that’s because that’s the view of our experts who conducted that side of the investigation for us. They identified that, as well as achieving the breach, they also took significant steps to conceal their tracks and lay false trails and change information available to us in order to frustrate the investigation. The conclusion was the person /s were highly competent in what they were doing. That technical investigation was the primary line of investigation although we did cater for other possibilities, these were later ruled out.

Which specific countries were involved in the trail of proxy servers and which countries were either helpful or uncooperative in your investigations?
While we will not be confirming the names of the countries specifically, we can confirm there were a number across the majority of the continents. We would underline that the use of a proxy server in any country is not necessarily evidence that the hack originated in that domain. We worked with partners in these countries and the level of response and support we got varied from being excellent to being quite time consuming. The logistics involved meant it was a complex picture with different legal jurisdictions and sovereignties. Sometimes it’s a procedural issue and sometimes it’s a political issue with a small or a big P.

Can you confirm that the US was helpful?
We will not confirm the identity of individual countries but we can say, in general terms, there is a healthy and productive relationship between law enforcement in the US and the UK.

Did you detect that any national government could be behind this?
No. The hypothesis was, and remains, that the person or persons responsible for this could be anyone on a spectrum from an individual right through to the other end of the spectrum, including commercial organisations and governments. It is obvious that some commercial organisations would have an interest in maintaining their commercial position; similarly there will be economies and governments which have an interest in protecting their position. To be clear, we did not get any indication as to who was responsible.

It is clear the person responsible has knowledge of this subject; did you interview all the bloggers that showed an interest?
We interviewed a number of people and the logistical issues involved meant that much of this work was carried out remotely because, physically travelling to countries, and the logistics involved in achieving that – for the anticipated outcome – would have not be proportionate. Of course, the climate sceptic community would, in the main, give the appearance of welcoming the published data because it supports their view. Therefore, we were realistic about the prospect of them being helpful to our investigation.

Can you describe what investigations you undertook at the UEA and who you interviewed there?
The focus internally was on the IT infrastructure and working out from there. We also looked at people working at or with connections to the Climate Research Unit and, in simple terms, we were looking for anything obvious. All members of staff were interviewed. If someone had some obvious links or had an axe to grind, then that might have been a line of enquiry. Generally speaking, it was a screening exercise which did not provide any positive lines of enquiry. Whilst - because we have not found the perpetrators - we cannot say categorically that no-one at the UEA is involved, there is no evidence to suggest that there was. The nature and sophistication of the attack does not suggest that it was anyone at the UEA.

You say that the hacker had to go through a series of passwords; do you know that someone at the UEA would not have had access to these passwords?
Anyone with access to these passwords has been excluded as a suspect. Additionally, there was some evidence of work undertaken to break passwords.

It has been reported that the hacker accessed the server on three separate occasions, can you confirm if that’s true and if there were any further attempts to access the server after ‘climategate’ broke and have there been any recently?
The report is inaccurate. The attack was conducted over a period of time and access would have occurred on a number of occasions and certainly more than three. Of course, we only know what we know. I have already described it was a sophisticated attack; we have established a substantial amount of what happened. What I can’t say is whether we have established everything that happened. There were no further data breaches once the story had broken in November 2009, not least because we had taken possession of Cruback3 and it wasn’t available to be accessed.

Do you know when the attacks began?
There’s a timeline of events and there has been speculation, in the media and the blogs, that there may have been an orchestrated campaign of Freedom of Information requests to the University in the summer of 2009. It appears the attacks were undertaken late in that summer, early autumn, through to November. The first tactic that we were aware of was in September 2009. There was news that some other institutions, including in Canada, that may have come under a similar attack at that time.

 Are there any other institutions that you have found that were attacked at this time?
We did have some dialogue and there were one or two that had been attacked and we did have a preliminary examination but they did not give us any indication or cause to suspect that it was in any way linked to the UEA.

What happens to Cruback3 now?
It has been returned to the University of East Anglia, having been retained as an exhibit through the course of the investigation. It was necessary to retain the actual server for this time. It contained a massive amount of data, something in the region of five terabytes.

When the second batch of e-mails was released, there was the note that came with them. Did you or your colleagues contemplate doing structural linguistics or analysis to try and trace it to a particular location in the world?
It was speculated on and it was something we did consider. Our conclusion was that it would be unlikely to take the investigation anywhere and, in fact, if you are trying to conceal your tracks it could have been constructed to mislead.

You have been restricted by the statute of limitations, would you have continued with this investigation otherwise?
The decision to close the case was a combination of the time limit and an acknowledgement that we had pursued this as far as we reasonably can.

Did you consider prosecuting people dealing in the information that was clearly stolen?
In terms of offences committed, it becomes a much greyer area. The same challenges exist in terms of identifying those individuals. An operational decision was made not to pursue this.

Beware the Computer Misuse Act
Unauthorised access to computer material.
(1) A person is guilty of an offence if—
(a) he causes a computer to perform any function with intent to secure access toany program or data held in any computer [F1, or to enable any such accessto be secured] ;
(b) the access he intends to secure [F2, or to enable to be secured,] is unauthorised;and
(c) he knows at the time when he causes the computer to perform the functionthat that is the case.
(2) The intent a person has to have to commit an offence under this section need not bedirected at—
(a) any particular program or data;
(b) a program or data of any particular kind; or
(c) a program or data held in any particular computer. [F3
(3) A person guilty of an offence under this section shall be liable—
(a) on summary conviction in England and Wales, to imprisonment for a termnot exceeding 12 months or to a fine not exceeding the statutory maximumor to both;
(b) on summary conviction in Scotland, to imprisonment for a term not exceedingsix months or to a fine not exceeding the statutory maximum or to both;
(c) on conviction on indictment, to imprisonment for a term not exceeding twoyears or to a fine or to both.]

2 Unauthorised access with intent to commit or facilitate commission of furtheroffences.
(1) A person is guilty of an offence under this section if he commits an offence undersection 1 above (“the unauthorised access offence”) with intent—
(a)to commit an offence to which this section applies; or
(b)to facilitate the commission of such an offence (whether by himself or by anyother person); and the offence he intends to commit or facilitate is referred to below in this section as the further offence.
(2) This section applies to offences—
(a)for which the sentence is fixed by law; or
(b)for which a personwho has attained the age of twenty-one years (eighteenin relation to England and Wales) and has no previous convictions may besentenced to imprisonment for a term of five years (or, in England and Wales,might be so sentenced but for the restrictions imposed by section 33 of theM1Magistrates’ Courts Act 1980).
(3)It is immaterial for the purposes of this section whether the further offence is to becommitted on the same occasion as the unauthorised access offence or on any futureoccasion.
(4)A person may be guilty of an offence under this section even though the facts are suchthat the commission of the further offence is impossible.
[F4(5)A person guilty of an offence under this section shall be liable—
(a)on summary conviction in England and Wales, to imprisonment for a termnot exceeding 12 months or to a fine not exceeding the statutory maximumor to both;
(b)on summary conviction in Scotland, to imprisonment for a term not exceedingsix months or to a fine not exceeding the statutory maximum or to both;
(c)on conviction on indictment, to imprisonment for a term not exceeding fiveyears or to a fine or to both.]

2012/07/19

The "skeptic's" Warped World View

A real defamation from that oh-so-pure Climate Audit:

achuara Posted Jul 18, 2012 at 4:11 PM | Permalink | Reply
 what about if the “criminals are brought to justice” along with Phil Jones, Mann and the merry bunch? But all boils down to emails and the data released or hacked have not been shown to be altered, or xxxxx –and that is the crux of the issue. They have been xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx data in the Hadley Center for decades, in a clear xxxxxxxx use of public money. But the issue seems to be it was not a leak but a hack! Give me a break!

For my protection I have decided to remove the worst defamatory words - republishing is as bad a initial publishing

McIntyre:
I, for one, don’t believe everything that the police say, just because they say so

!!!!!!!!!.

theduke Posted Jul 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM | Permalink | Reply

The “hack,” if it was a crime, was clearly one of conscience or, if you prefer, an act of civil disobedience. If Mosher and Fuller say it was someone (or more than one) with connections to the CRU, then it’s more likely than not that that is true

Mosher is more reliable than the police!

Steve McIntyre Posted Jul 18, 2012 at 12:13 PM | Permalink | Reply 
Too bad that they didn’t provide any evidence to actually dispel the theory that RC/FOIA “was a disgruntled UEA employee”.

!!!!!

Steve McIntyre Posted Jul 18, 2012 at 3:53 PM | Permalink | Reply

According to Richard Black, Michael Mann has urged that “criminals be brought to justice”:
...
Peter Gleick was apparently unavailable for comment.

UEA has called the police in to investigate a criminal event (Computer Misuse Act) The police accept that a crime has been committed.

No one has charged Gleick with a criminal act - this is in the hands of Heartland

The whole of the blog has turned to innuendo, conspiracy theories and defamatory comments.

The blocking of comments to these  denialist blogs has become an art form - wordpress must have got some damn fine filtering available to them. It is becoming frustrating!