2020/05/30

The Corona Virus Time-Line

December 21st 2019
Chinese epidemiologists with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published an article on 20th January 2020 stating that the first cluster of patients with ‘pneumonia of an unknown cause’ had been identified on 21st December 2019

 You cannot act on this - it is a sort of pneumonia with unknown transmission. It was published therefore no secret

December 31st 2019
Chinese authorities confirmed they were treating dozens of cases of pneumonia of an unknown cause. Days laters researchers in China identified a new virus that had infected dozens of people. There was no evidence that the virus was spread by humans.
China contacts the WHO and informs them of ‘cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology’ detected in Wuhan

  no evidence for human to human spread and who informed

  1 January 2020
WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.


January 2nd 2020
Central Hospital of Wuhan banned its staff from discussing the disease publicly or recording them using text or image that can be used as evidence
 
  Chinese damage limitation not called for

 4  January 2020
WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

 
 5 January 2020
WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

January 8th 2020
The Chinese government agrees to accept a WHO scientific team to assist their own researchers
 
 WHO goes to China now they cannot hide problems

 10 January 2020
Developed with reference to other coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, WHO issued a tool for countries to check their ability to detect and respond to a novel coronavirus. This information is to help with identifying main gaps, assessing risks and planning for additional investigations, response and control actions.

January 11th 2020
Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused by the virus. It was a 61-year old man who was a regular customer of the market in Wuhan where the virus is believed to have originated, and had previously been found to have abdominal tumors and chronic liver disease.
  first death many co-morbidities - so was this the virus?
 12 January 2020
China shares the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus, which will be very important for other countries as they develop specific diagnostic kits.
First case of novel coronavirus outside of China confirmed

  
  13 January 2020
Officials confirmed a case of the novel coronavirus in Thailand. It was not unexpected that cases of the novel coronavirus would emerge outside of China and reinforces why WHO calls for active monitoring and preparedness in other countries.
WHO makes field visit to Wuhan, China

 
January 14th 2020
Reporters from Hong Kong taken to police station after trying to film the situation within Wuhan hospital
 
  Chinese damage limitation
 
  14 January 2020
WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


January 20th 2020
The first confirmed cases outside mainland China occurred in Japan, South Korea and Thailand, according to the WHO.

January 21st 2020
The first confirmed case of the virus in the US in Washington State, where a man in his 30s developed symptoms after returning from a trip to Wuhan.
 
 US now knows
  21 January 2020
The delegation observed and discussed active surveillance processes, temperature screening at Wuhan Tianhe airport, laboratory facilities, infection prevention and control measures at Zhongnan hospital and its associated fever clinics, and the deployment of a test kit to detect the virus.
The delegation also discussed public communication efforts and China’s plan to expand the case definition for the novel coronavirus, which will build a clearer picture of the spectrum of severity of the virus. At the end of the visit, the Chinese Government released the primers and probes used in the test kit for the novel coronavirus to help other countries detect it. Chinese experts also shared a range of protocols that will be used in developing international guidelines, including case definitions, clinical management protocols and infection control.
Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

 
January 22nd 2020
Public Health England announces it is moving the risk level to the British public from ‘very low’ to ‘low’.
 
 uk knows - us and uk not taking action - why?
 
 22 January 2020
WHO mission to China issued a statement saying that there was evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission.

22- 23 January 2020
The WHO Director- General convened an Emergency Committee (EC) under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) to assess whether the outbreak constituted a public health emergency of international concern. The independent members from around the world could not reach a consensus based on the evidence available at the time. They asked to be reconvened within 10 days after receiving more information.


January 23rd 2020
Wuhan (population over 11 million) is cut off by the Chinese authorities. Planes and trains leaving the city are cancelled, and buses, subways and ferries within the city are suspended. 17 people had died at this point and 570 infected in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the US.
Figures compiled by the Chinese Railway Administration showed that approximately 100,000 people had already departed from Wuhan Train Station by the deadline.
Construction begins in Wuhan for a specialist emergency hospital which opened on 3rd February
 
 lock down - us uk no action why?   Trump::Jan 24
China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!

January 26th 2020
China extends the ‘Spring Festival’ holiday in order to contain the coronavirus outbreak.
Schools in Beijing to stay closed until further notice

  Trump:: Jan 27
We are in very close communication with China concerning the virus. Very few cases reported in USA, but strongly on watch. We have offered China and President Xi any help that is necessary. Our experts are extraordinary!


  28 January 2020
A senior WHO delegation led by the Director-General travelled to Beijing to meet China’s leadership, learn more about China’s response, and to offer any technical assistance.
While in Beijing, Dr. Tedros agreed with Chinese government leaders that an international team of leading scientists would travel to China on a mission to better understand the context, the overall response, and exchange information and experience.


January 29th 2020
The UK’s first two patients test positive for Coronavirus after two Chinese nationals from the same family staying at a hotel in York fall ill.
A plane evacuating Britons from Wuhan arrives at RAF Brize Norton. Passengers go into a 14 day quarantine at a specialist hospital on Merseyside.

  still no uk/us action
January 30th 2020
WHO declares a global health emergency amid thousands of new cases in China.
 
 who declares emergency - there is a definite problem - us/uk no action
 30 January 2020
WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared the 2019-nCoV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, following a second meeting of the Emergency Committee convened under the International Health Regulations.
Acknowledging that cases have been reported in five WHO regions in one month, the Committee noted that early detection, isolating and treating cases, contact tracing and social distancing measures – in line with the level of risk – can all work to interrupt virus spread.


  Trump::jan 30
  Working closely with China and others on Coronavirus outbreak. Only 5 people in U.S., all in good recovery.

  Trump::Jan 30
  Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!


January 31st 2020
The US suspends entry into the country by any foreign nationals who had travelled to China in the past 14 days, excluding the immediate family members of US citizens or permanent residents.
213 people had died and 9,800 infected worldwide.
 
 us action on flights (should have happened earlier to be effective virus is already rampant in us) us/uk no lock down why?
February 1st 2020
Spain confirms its first case of the coronavirus on La Gomera in the Canary Islands

February 2nd 2020
The first death of coronavirus is reported outside China, as a 44-year-old man in the Philippines dies after being infected.
 
 3 February 2020
WHO releases the international community's Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan to help protect states with weaker health systems


February  4th 2020
The UK directs its citizens to leave  China if possible
 
  spread it further???
February 5th 2020
A cruise ship in Japan quarantines 3600 people after a two-week trip to Southeast Asia. 218 people onboard the ship tested positive for the virus.

February 7th 2020
The Chinese doctor Dr. Li Wenliang, who tried to ring early alarms that a cluster of infections could spin out of control, dies after contracting the virus. He was reprimanded by authorities in early January and he was forced to sign a statement denouncing his warning as an unfounded and illegal rumor.

   Trump:: Feb 7
Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!

  Trump::Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.”
February 11th 2020
The disease is named ‘Covid-19’, an acronym that stands for coronavirus disease 2019. 1113 people in China have died with 44,653 cases, and 393 cases outside of China.
 
 11-12 February 2020
WHO convened a Research and Innovation Forum on COVID-19, attended by more than 400 experts and funders from around the world, which included presentations by George Gao, Director General of China CDC, and Zunyou Wu, China CDC's chief epidemiologist.


February 14th 2020
France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe – an 80-year-old Chinese tourist. The fourth death from the virus outside mainland China.
Egypt confirms its first case, the first on the African continent.

  Trump::Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
February 17th 2020
China said it was reviewing its trade and consumption of wildlife, which has been identified as a probable source of the outbreak

February 19th 2020
443 passengers leave the Diamond Princess cruises ship. A total of 621 people aboard the ship were infected.

  Trump::Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”
February 21st 2020
The virus appears in Iran from an unknown source. Iran announced the two cases then hours later said that both patients had died. Two days later, Iran announced two additional deaths.
The South Korean government shuts down thousands of kindergartens, nursing homes and community centres, following a surge in infections linked to the secretive church the Shincheonji Church of Jesus.
 
  south korean lock down bypassed by religious sect worship
February 23rd 2020
Italy sees a major surge in coronavirus cases – up to 150. Officials locked down 10 towns in Lombardy after a cluster of cases suddenly emerged in Codogno, southeast of Milan. Schools closed and sporting and cultural events were canceled.
Italy introduces strict measures which place almost 50,000 people in lockdown in an attempt to control the virus
 
  italy lock down too late
February 24th 2020
The Trump administration asks Congress for $1.25 billion for coronavirus response – the US had 35 confirmed cases and no deaths.
Iran emerges as a second focus point of the virus, with 61 cases and 12 deaths. It is a cause for worry as a place of pilgrimage.
 
 Iran problems made worse by sanctions
  Trump::Feb. 24 (tweet): “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
  Trump::Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”
Feb. 25: “Now they have it, they have studied it, they know very much, in fact, we’re very close to a vaccine,”
February 26th 2020
Latin America reports its first coronavirus case, as Brazilian health officials said that a 61-year-old Sao Paulo man, returning from Italy, tested positive for the virus.

  Trump::Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
February 28th 2020
800 people are now infected in Italy,  and cases in 14 other European countries remain an area of concern
Sub-Saharan Africa records its first infection.
The first British victim dies of coronavirus onboard the Diamond Princess.
UK authorities confirm the first case of the illness to be passed on inside the country.
The worst week for the global stock markets since the 2008 financial crash.
The WHO raises  the coronavirus alert to the  highest level.
 
 no action from us/uk re lockdown. Whatever the WHO says at this point is irrelevant - the dangers are self evident
  Trump::Feb. 28: “I think it’s really going well. … We’re prepared for the worst, but we think we’re going to be very fortunate.”
Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
Feb. 28: “This is their new hoax.”
February 29th 2020
The US records its first coronavirus death and announces travel restrictions of ‘do not travel’ warnings for areas in Italy and South Korea. It also bans all travel to Iran and bars entry to any foreign citizen who had visited Iran in the previous 14 days.
 
  the virus is loose in the us restrictions not really relevant at this point
March 4th 2020
Cases of Covid-19 surge in the UK, as officials announce the biggest one-day increase so far as 34 cases bring the total to 87
Italy announces it is shutting schools and universities.

  Trump::March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.”
March 4: Now, this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it is very mild... So if, you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better and then, when you do have a death like you had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California, I believe you had one in New York, you know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4 percent, which is a very high number, as opposed to a fraction of 1 percent.
  Trump::March 9 (tweet): “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”
March 10th 2020
Nadine Dorries, a junior health minister, becomes the first MP to test positive for coronavirus.
6 people in the UK have now died of the illness, with 373 testing positive

  Trump::March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
March 11th 2020
The US blocks travel from European countries other than the UK for 30 days, as the WHO declares the virus a pandemic and stock markets plunge.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak announces a £12bn package of emergency support to help the UK cope with the expected onslaught from coronavirus
 
  11 March 2020
Deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction, WHO made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.


  Trump::March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”
  Trump::March 12: “It’s going to go away. … The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”
March 13th 2020
The US declares a national emergency and makes $50 billion in federal funds available to tackle the coronavirus.
A host of UK sporting events announce their postponement including the London Marathon. Premier League fixtures are suspended.

  Trump::March 15: “This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”
March 16th 2020
Latin America imposes restrictions on their citizens to slow the spread of the virus. Venezuela announces a nationwide quarantine to begin on March 17th. Ecuador and Peru implement countrywide lockdowns, and Colombia and Costa Rica close their borders. Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro encourages mass demonstrations by his supporters against his opponents in congress.
Boris Johnson begins daily press briefings, urging everybody in the UK to work from home and avoid pubs and restaurants to give the NHS time to cope with the pandemic.
The UK’s death toll rises to 55, with 1,543 confirmed cases, though it is believed 10,000 people have already been infected.

March 17th 2020
France imposes a nationwide lockdown, prohibiting all gatherings and only allowing people to go out for fresh air. France had more than 6,500 infections with more than 140 deaths
The EU bars most travellers from outside the bloc for 30 days.
Rishi Sunak unleashes the biggest package of emergency state support for business since the 2008 financial crash, unveiling £330bn-worth of government-backed loans and more than £20bn in tax cuts and grants for companies threatened with collapse.

  Trump::march 17: "I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic"
March 18th 2020
The UK government announces most schools across England will be shut down from Friday until further notice. Wales and Scotland announce they will also close schools.
 
  uk lockdown begins

  18 March 2020
WHO and partners launch the Solidarity Trial, an international clinical trial that aims to generate robust data from around the world to find the most effective treatments for COVID-19.


March 19th 2020
For the first time, China reports zero local infections, a milestone in the fight against the pandemic. Experts said the country would need to see at least 14 consecutive days without new infections for the outbreak to be considered over. 34 new cases were confirmed among people who had arrived in China from elsewhere.
 March 19-24th 2020
United States lockdowns.
California 2020-03-19[156]
Clark County, NV 2020-03-20[157]
Connecticut 2020-03-23[158]
Illinois 2020-03-21[160]
Kansas City, KS 2020-03-24[162]
Massachusetts 2020-03-24[164]
Michigan 2020-03-24[165]
New York 2020-03-20[166]
Oregon 2020-03-24[168]
Wisconsin 2020-03-24[169]


March 20th 2020
The UK government orders all pubs, restaurants, gyms and other social venues across the country to close
The chancellor announces the government will pay up to 80% of wages for workers at risk of being laid off
 
  uk lockdown tightens
March 23rd 2020
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in a televised address to the nation, says that Britons should only go outside to buy food, to exercise once a day, or to go to work if they absolutely cannot work from home. Citizens will face police fines for failure to comply with these new measures.
Worldwide figures stand at more than 270,000 cases and 11,000 deaths.

March 24th 2020
Tokyo Olympics likely to be postponed – according to a member of the International Olympic Committee, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics – set to begin in August – will be postponed. Australia and Canada have already announced that their athletes will not compete

  Trump::March 24: "We're going to be opening relatively soon... I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter." He added in a subsequent interview: "Easter is a very special day for me... and you'll have packed churches all over our country."
March 25th 2020
Prince Charles tests positive for the coronavirus.
In the US, negotiators strike a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package intended to assist businesses and millions of Americans amid the halt in the US economy. The bill includes $1,200 for individuals earning up to $75,000, $100 billion for health care providers, and $58 billion for the US airline industry. It would also include $2,400 per month for up to four months to the unemployed. $500 billion goes to industry loans that corporations, cities, and states can apply for.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day lockdown of the country’s 1.3 billion residents. India has only recorded 536 cases of COVID-19 so far.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rails against coronavirus measures being taken in his country, as local officials take preparedness into their own hands.

March 26th 2020
G20 world leaders meet virtually to discuss the coronavirus crisis. King Salman of Saudi Arabia calls on the world’s richest economies to ‘extend a helping hand to developing countries’.
Brits across the UK clap, cheer, and ring bells at 8pm to thank the NHS workers for their service in tackling the pandemic.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveils a package of measures to help self-employed workers during the economic downturn, giving those earning less than £50,000 a taxable grant equal to 80 percent of their average profits.

March 27th 2020
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock test positive for the coronavirus
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says that the coronavirus crisis has exposed the EU’s ‘weaknesses’.

March 28th 2020
European COmmission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU ‘looked into the abyss’ in the early days of the crisis but now it has the chance to reinvent itself.
French President Emmanuel Macron issues a plea for European solidarity to fight the coronavirus crisis, saying ‘I don’t want a selfish and divided Europe’
Belgium extend confinement measures until 19th April
UK Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, announces he is self-isolating after experiencing symptoms of the coronavirus

March 29th 2020
The European Commission announces that it will revise its proposal for the EU’s next seven-year  budget
US announces social distancing measures to continue until 30th April, as the US records the highest number of coronavirus infections in the world, at more than 139,700 cases.

March 30th 2020
Hungarian Parliament passes a bill that gives PM Viktor Orban power to rule by decree, impose a state of emergency without a time limit, and suspend parliament.
UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab announces the government is to spend £75 million on charter flights and airline tickets to repatriate up to 300,000 Britons stranded abroad as countries have closed their borders to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

March 31st 2020
Spain joins the US and Italy  as one of the few countries to surpass China’s coronavirus case total, reporting 85,195 cases and 8,189 deaths.
Ethiopia announces it has postponed its parliamentary and presidential elections, originally scheduled for August. The elections were to be a big test for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reformist measures.
The White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2020, if current social distancing trends hold.

April 1st 2020
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announces that the Commission  will present an unemployment reinsurance scheme to ensure workers keep their jobs during the coronavirus crisis.
Italy announces it will extend lockdown measures until 13th April. Health Minister Roberto Speranza says ‘data shows that we are on the right path and that the drastic decisions are bearing fruit’.
The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) summit, due to be held in Glasgow in November, is postponed until 2021.

April 2nd 2020
The number of worldwide coronavirus cases passes one million.

2020/05/23

Starlink or What?

Sky photos from 2020-05-20 to 2020-05-21 at around midnight Gloucestershire UK.

The first pair are made using the a set of 405 photos stacked using deepsky stacker. The exposure was 0.5 seconds for each with a gap of approx. 2 seconds using f2 50mm lens on m2/3 body.

The first picture uses an averaging stacking to get rid of noise and is the usual mode of stacking.
The second picture uses a maximum stacking algorithm keeping the high intensity pixels for each frame. 

The second picture shows trails (obviously). from slow moving objects and dashed lines from fast movement objects. Note that stacking retains the position of stars in each stacked picture any object not in the same rotation of the earth as the stars will form lines.

the third and fourth pictures are at an exposure per frame of  0.625 seconds with the same camera with aperture set to f1.4. Approximately 1100 frames are stacked:

The third picture uses an averaging stacking to get rid of noise and is the usual mode of stacking.
The fourth picture uses a maximum stacking algorithm keeping the high intensity pixels for each frame

The questions
Are the trails a feature of the stacking?
Why are some satellites moving much faster than others - not starlink - planes?
- some "planes" show up as a cluster of red green white light in one frame only
On the 4th photo why are some satellites "jiggling" Top right of 4th photo. Other stars in same location show no strange movements. Tripod was steady on windless night.



Central coloured spots appear only once on 2nd picture and not at all on first - a plane?


If a plane and this capture shows no motion blur in 0.5sec why does it only appear once in the 200 second capture - in does not appear in the average.





Another splurge of dots from 4th picture (centre) that only appears once - A plane? Note jumbled trail where others are as expected!

Taken 2020-05-29 at 02:17 start 1.6 sec exp f1.4 50mm m4/3 camera body  ~400 pictures averaged Stars Named.

Taken 2020-05-29 at 02:17 start 1.6 sec exp f1.4 50mm m4/3 camera body  ~400 pictures  stacked (as previous) with max intensity retained

Taken 2020-05-29 at 02:23 start 1.6 sec exp f1.4 50mm m4/3 camera body  ~200 pictures stacked retaining max intensity


2020/05/16

Were Wuhan Laboratories the Source of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus?

A worthy video of the lies related to the origin of the covid-19 virus.

htTps://youtu.be/ab-r0capbzk

2020/05/10

Michael Moore Planet of the Humans Film - Just Think

A good analysis of the Michael Moore film - no rants just reason

https://youtu.be/ZmNjLHRAP2U

2020/04/28

Nenana Ice Classic - Official Date and Time the River moved now Available

The movement of the tripod on the Tanana River  ice tripped the time clock on 2020-04-27 at  12:56:00

Timing everything from the vernal equinox given  this plot:

So this years data shows a continual decrease, year on year, from about 1964 onwards (on average!).

No thermometer juggling possible, no tree rings to bodge, no models to distrust. Is this a real indicator of AGW?

2020/04/27

nenana ice breakup time coming soon



Tripod over but clock not tripped

update tripod clock tripped waiting for official result


2020/04/16

Some 5:00 am twittering 2020-03-16



A few pictures and early morning twittering (5:00 am)

Mainly birds angrily proclaiming ownership of gardens and females - so not just twittering for fun!