One shows reconstruction from cycles only; this has problems getting a good fit in the 1800s but shows rhat the next few years should be a period of reducing temperatures. The long period controlling the plot is 317 year long
The other is constructed round a smooth increasing trend. A better fit in the 1800s and still shows that despite the trend the temperatures will be flat for a few more years before increasing with a vengance. The underlying trend is defined by this polynomial
y = 2.40389E-07x3 - 1.34093E-03x2 + 2.49320E+00x - 1.545547E+03
Do either have any predictive skills. = NO
The most importasnt thing shown is in the the trending plot where despite an ever increasing trend there is still a period where temperatures appear not to increase - from 1998 to 2018. this is due to an underlying 60year period being on a down part of the cycle. This is something that the "skeptics" cannot seem to grasp - CO2 is increasing so why is temperature static?.
The all cycle:
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317 year and 60.1 year cycles controlling the "trend"
The trend+cycle plot
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Trend and 59.75 year cycle controlling trend |
Earlier posts:
http://climateandstuff.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/simulation