Showing posts with label ice breakup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ice breakup. Show all posts

2021/05/23

2021 Nenana Ice Classic - the River Ice broke on APRIL 30TH, 2021 AT 12:50 PM AST

The clocked stopped on the Nenana River  2021-04-30 at 12:50pm. Plotting this to days from the vernal equinox gives the following plot



The ice breakup time is still close to the trendline shown in black

2020/04/28

Nenana Ice Classic - Official Date and Time the River moved now Available

The movement of the tripod on the Tanana River  ice tripped the time clock on 2020-04-27 at  12:56:00

Timing everything from the vernal equinox given  this plot:

So this years data shows a continual decrease, year on year, from about 1964 onwards (on average!).

No thermometer juggling possible, no tree rings to bodge, no models to distrust. Is this a real indicator of AGW?

2019/04/15

2019 Nenana - River Ice breakup

The Nenana Ice Classic for 2019  ended when the Tanana river ice broke up on 14th April 2019 at 12:21 AM.

Two days before breakup:


Plots below assume AST throughout the record.

A large drop this year (earlier breakup) but is within the bounds of noise in this very noisy system. It does follow the downward trend from the 1970s.


2017/05/05

Nenana Ice Classic is over for 2017

The Nenana Ice classic is a non-profit corporation formed by the residents of Nenana, Alaska, for the purpose of conducting an annual ice pool contest under special statutory authority enacted the first state legislature in 1960. The Association was incorporated by the State of Alaska in December 1972. Previously it had operated as an unincorporated association.

The idea is to guess the exact time of the ice break-up on the nenana river
This contest has been running since 1917 and consequently gives an idea of thermal conditions on the river over time. Unless dynamite is used(!) the time of breakup is difficult to contest and calling "Fraud" even more contentious.

Three plots are given 2 timed from the start of the year and one from the vernal equinox (the latter uses a fixed point in solar time).

Looks like the break up occurred at a time predicted by the slope of the average










2016/04/25

Nenana Ice Break Up Occurred 2016-04-24 15:39:00

The Annual Nenana Ice Classic is Over for Another Year
The Tanana River officially broke up on 2016-04-24 at  15:39:00
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

 2 plots as usual
one timed from start of year




this one timed from vernal equinox



Still declining! 

2015/04/25

The Annual Nenana Ice Classic is Over for Another Year

After an initial movement 2 days ago an ice-jam prevented full movement of the tripod and the clock was not stopped. However, the Tanana River officially broke up on April 24th at 2:25 P.M. Alaska Standard Time.

http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

Tripod moved but not moving


Not free of ice but no more tripod:



So how does this extended date fit in with previous data.

2 plots
one timed from start of year


this one timed from vernal equinox


Seems to be following a declining period with a few early peaks

2014/04/27

The Tanana Ice Classic for 2014 is over.

2014/05/07 Updated with correct date !

The Tanana River officially broke up and the Tripod moved down river stopping the clock at 3:48 PM Alaska Standard Time April 25th, 2014



This makes last years very late breakup seem anomalous. But of course its only weather!



Adding this years figures to the data and you get plots which seems to follow the various global temperature profiles of: warming since 1970s until 1998 then static to present.
People have said the earlier times of the breakup is due to industrialisation upstream of Nenana - However the static/reversed slope seems to show that either industrialisation has reversed or perhaps, maybe, the temperature is having an effect!:




 Top 2 traces show timings from beginning of the year
Final trace is timing from vernal Equinox


All plots use AK time:
The first splits the data into 3 segments
The second assumes that there is no upturn and hence only 2 lines
Smoothing is done with Hodrick Prescott filter from http://www.web-reg.de/hp_addin.html

Breakup data from
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

2011/05/06

Nenana Ice Clasic - 2011

Results are in for this year - The Tanana River officially broke up and the ice moved interrupting the timer on 4th May 2011 at 16:24. This is later than GW would predict!

Changing plot to assume that last few years are a recovery!



[ps. watts refuses to post (or read?) items from me. Consequetly the greatest scientific blog on the web still shows that he cannot subtract 2 dates to give the breakup in days fromstart of the year. -
Here’s the context of the date in comparison with all of the others since 1917. (I calculated this to be day 124.683 in 2011, please check)
Actual count is 123.6833
Never mind no one notices anyway - what watts says is the truth even if wrong! CO2 snow anyone! (see this post)]