The record was set in 1964 which was a leap year. The movement happened 140.4868 days from January 1st
This year the movement occurred 139.6118 days from January 1st
Hmmm! Perhaps this all need rejigging to relate the breakup time to the vernal equinox and z-time
Anyway, here are 2 plots using AK time:
The first splits the data into 3 segments
The second assumes that there is no upturn and hence only 2 lines
Smoothing is done with Hodrick Prescott filter from http://www.web-reg.de/hp_addin.html
Breakup data from
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Heres the modified plot with days since vernal equinox instead of start of year:
So this year now becomes the latest date for breakup! Otherwise the shape remains.
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