holding post for a briffa fest + other posts

Repository of posts (and other stuff) sent to McIntyres blog - they sometimes get deleted!!!
=========================================
thefordprefect Posted Mar 31, 2011 at 8:40 PM

Some time ago I did an experiment using a digital camera at night (the camera tries to adjust for the lack of light by making the sensor more sensitive. this allows random thermal noise to produce the typical digital noise on such photos - this can only be reduced by operating the sensor at ultra low temperatures)


It is a good technique for producing pictures in near impossible conditions - take a binary number of photos, combine them in pairs using the "add" function in paintshop pro, take each summed photo and add to another summed photo. Continue adding together only 2 photos at a time until the required result is obtained.
What was the purpose:
To show that a signal buried in random noise can be extracted by averaging over many data sources.

I.e. take enough trees. Average the ring data and any common factors in the data may become visible - fertilisation, lack of nutrients; too much water, too little water; etc get reduced. but the temperature/CO2 fertilisation are not locally different and any of these or similar effects should become dominant in the averaged data. By junking obvious non responders (invalid photos of kids etc) the common signal is obtained more quickly. We what the temperature has done over the last few hundred years - is it therefore wrong to dump trees that do not conform? I knew that my photos contained no ships so why should I average my ship photos into the photo of the back garden?



Does anyone suggest that a proxy record is an exact representation of past temperatures - I have not seen such words used. All these proxies are simply work in progress (and done over a decade ago!). Reports generated a decade ago are not necessarily fixed in stone more recent ideas/data can displace such ancient documents. Why are these constantly paraded before us?



The photo experiment can be seen here:

http://climateandstuff.blogspot.com/2009/10/noise-tree-rings-and-stuff.html
================================================
I see no magenta style plot on these papers – can you direct me to the correct one please?

Seeing the Wood from the Trees
Keith R. Briffa and Timothy J. Osborn*
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/284/5416/926.full?ijkey=c5d71e39f7f85ed34e518d0ce7473549cc903585&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha


High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures
P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa, T. P. Barnett and S. F. B. Tett The Holocene 1998
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/8/4/455.full.pdf

Low frequencty temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network
Briffa et al 2001
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/jgr2001/Briffa2001.pdf

from the blog:
thefordprefect Posted Mar 26, 2011 at 7:52 AM
I’ll reply here but it will probably get pulled.
Watts is observing the current state of temperature proxies (LIG thermometers, Pt resistance thermometers, Thermistors etc in various enclosures. These all respond in a certain way to temperature – not always linear (lig will have a boiling point where it becomes decidedly non linear. They are all placed over different surfaces Snow, rain, grass growth, new tarmac, etc will all influence the air temperature measured.
Watts then removes manually any he considers does not CURRENTLY (and have not in the past?) meet the standards he is applying (cherry picking). This leaves the “good reponder” proxies.
All thermometers require calibration against kmown standards

Briffa does not have this luxury. His proxies are dead trees – there is no possibility of determining which are to be good proxies for their life. Rivers may change course affecting the water table. All trees have a inverted cup shape growth with temperature. There will be an optimum below and above which growth rates will be lower. This optimum will depend on available nutrients, surrounding competition etc. all of which will change over the life of the tree.
Trees need calibrating against known standards – the intrumental data.

McIntyre’s blog has already castigated Briffa for throwing away trees that are not good proxies (cherry picking). This leaves the good proxies. Briffa is now being called “names” for removing bad data that does not give a good proxy for temperature but which is taken from trees that for some of the period are good responders. This sounds very much like Watts is doing!

The plot Hodrick-Prescott Filtered cf 50 year average taken from data on second page of spreadsheet residing in the basement repository with "beware tigers" on the door. No info Just Briffa et al as a column heading - was this published, was this an intermediary file. Who knows? McIntyre does NOT. But McIntryre assumes much! Also chose your smoothing and end padding to get the results you require.

data from
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/jones1998/jonesdata.xls

Adding in the data suggested by commenter with more severe filtering to untangle the spagetti a bit

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/jgr2001/jgrdata2

A link to AR4 where the failing data is discussed:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6s6-6.html

to WUWT 11-05-03

Richard S Courtney says: May 2, 2011 at 5:00 pm

Wind farms are expensive, polluting, environmentally damaging bird swatters that produce no useful electricity at any time: they merely displace power stations onto standby mode (when the power stations continue to consume their fuel and to produce their emissions) during the periods when the wind is strong enough but not too strong for the wind turbines to generate electricity.
What do you not understand about conservation of resources. A power station runing without producing power (spinning reserve, warm start) consumes very little energy to when fully loaded. This surely is obvious? Otherwise where does the excess fuel energy go?
The RSPB consider a correctly placed windturbine to be OK.
How many birds do windows on your house wipe out (we get perhaps 4 deaths/year despite stickers on the panes).
How many birds/animals does your traveling in road vehicles wipe out?
What is the "bird slicers" to vehicles/homes ratio?
What evidence do you have that wind turbines are polluting. According to Vestas 80% of a turbine can be recycled.
From Vestas web site:

For example, a V90-3.0 MW offshore wind turbine will pay for itself more than 35 times during its lifetime – producing 284,600 MWh over the course of 20 years in
The complete life cycle analysis of a wind turbine:

http://www.vestas.com/Admin/Public/DWSDownload.aspx?File=%2fFiles%2fFiler%2fEN%2fSustainability%2fLCA%2fLCA_V112_Study_Report_2011.pdf

Neodymium is not always used:

ENERCON news ENERCON WECs produce clean energy without neodymium

29.04. 2011

ENERCON wind energy converters (WECs) generate electricity in an environmentally friendly way without the use of the controversial element, neodymium. The gearless WEC design on which all WEC types – from the E-33/330 kW to the E-126/7.5 MW – are based includes a separately excited annular generator. The magnetic fields required by the generator to produce electricity are created electrically. By design, and unlike the majority of competing products, ENERCON WECs do without permanent magnets whose production requires neodymium.
No one thinks that a 1kW generator will produce economic electricity to the grid. But connect up a 3+MW generator and for the 28% of the time it produces power it is saving an equivalent in fossil fuels that future generations can use. Is this a bad thing?
No one expects a few hundred turbines to REPLACE fossil/nuclear generators. All know that there are times of no wind. BUT they do displace convenient energy to the future. And they do reduce all pollution.
All those you tube videos of burning and destructing turbines are good propaganda but one has to compare the permanent exclusion zone round a failed turbine to the exclusion zone round a failed reactor.
thefordprefect


Posted May 24, 2011 at 7:03 AM
Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Mosher,
Good grief this is getting ridiculous!
If I wrote a paper on the JET fusion processes and why I need to use beryllium tungsten walls.
Who would review it – geologists? research chemists? joe bloggs, the blogging king?, or would it be other researchers in the field of fusion reactions and material scientists.
Would I know these others?
Yes.
I would be in email, telephonic, and even social contact with them. Some would even be friends! Pals (to you).


For you to complain about my reviewers, you would have to call them dishonest. Would you be prepared to do that?
You ARE prepared to do that to climate scientist reviewers.

Online personas

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in email
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How to create a persona background

1296969913.M375202P7284Q224.cybercom
get some malware source code, modify it, distribute it with one personna, the call-out with another.

Etc.

WUWT - A science blog of note

In entry:
Rebuttal to the Skeptical Science “Crux of a Core”

Posted on March 1, 2011 by Anthony Watts
Guest post by Dr. J Storrs Hall

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/01/rebuttal-to-the-skeptical-science-crux-of-a-core/

There is this gem of a scientific annotation to this graph:

(This is GISP2 in green, NGRIP, another Greenland core, in cyan, and the Vostok Antarctic core in blue. The Vostok has been scaled and shifted for a best match with the others; the temperature in Antarctica is colder, with smaller variations, than in Greenland. Furthermore, there are some time-scaling issues — note the temporal divergence of the two Greenland records before about 40 kya. It’s possible that NH/SH actually match better than this plot indicates.  Look here for data.)
 
Consider the supposed desecration of science of hide the decline - see earlier post
 
Storrs Hall
has invisibly shifted a whole data set in time.
has changed the data scaling of a data set
Has used 2 locations on the globe only to prove that AGW is a fraud.
 
Not one post points this out!!!!!!

A Plot to remember. A post to remember. A Writ to remember.

Absolute garbage concatenation of two approximations ignoring continental movements.
The temperature to me seems to show warm/cold/not so warm type of temperatures not that it was 25C 600M years ago!
http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm
The CO2 comes from a MODEL described here
http://earth.geology.yale.edu/~ajs/2001/Feb/qn020100182.pdf

Its snowing CO2 in the antarctic!!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/09/co2-condensation-in-antarctica-at-113f/


The original title:
Natural Carbon Sequestration In Antarctica ? A Litmus Test For Global Warming? By Steven Goddard How cold is it in Antarctica? According to Weather Underground, Vostok, Antarctica is forecast to reach -113F on Friday. That is four degrees below the freezing point of CO2 and would cause dry (CO2) ice to freeze directly out of the air.

added 18/1/2013


Cuccinelli vs UVA
http://s3.amazonaws.com/hamptonroadscom/store/1611.pdf

he wants even the used toilet paper!

Definition of document
"any book, pamphlet, brochure, periodical, newspaper, letter, correspondence, memoranda, notice, facsimile, e-mail, manual, press release, telegram, report, study, handwritten note, working paper, chart, paper, graph, index, tape, data processingcard,, or any otherwritten, recorded, transcribed, punched, taped, filmed, or graphic matter now in your possession, custody, or control"

the wmo plot debate

referenced on the 2nd page of the document:


https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/913_en.pdf

Front cover: Northern Hemisphere temperatures were reconstructed for the past 1000 years (up to 1999) using palaeoclimatic records (tree rings, corals, ice cores, lake sediments, etc.), along with historical and long instrumental records. The data are shown as 50-year smoothed differences from the 1961–1990 normal.


Uncertainties are greater in the early part of the millennium (see page 4 for further information). For more details, readers are referred to the PAGES newsletter (Vol. 7, No. 1: March 1999, also available at http://www.pages.unibe.ch) and the National Geophysical Data Center


(http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov).


(Sources of data: P.D. Jones, K.R. Briffa and T.J. Osborn, University of East Anglia, UK; M.E. Mann, University of Virginia, USA; R.S. Bradley, University of Massachusetts, USA; M.K. Hughes, University of Arizona, USA; and the Hadley Centre, The Met. Office)



They refer the reader to this document where on page 8 one finds the hiding of the decline by publishing it.


http://www.pages-igbp.org/products/newsletters/nl99_1_prt.pdf



In the immediate future, work will continue on important statistical issues related to the processing and interpretation of all of the various tree-ring collections. Potential anthropogenic influences on recent tree growth will become an increasingly important focus of the work. Increased tree productivity during the 19th and early 20th centuries and post-1950 declines in tree density trends have recently been identified in our data. The extent, detail and implications of these phenomena have yet to be further explored. Chronology confidence and the expression of climate forcing are most strongly expressed on short (annual to century) timescales. New data processing techniques are exploring...





So the only complaint can be the fact the graph does not differentiate between the proxy and thermometer record.

More Constructions of a Temperature series

More on the "fun" project - not scientific!
"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk".
Attributed to von Neumann

Following on from comments The frequencies etc of the original plots have been tweaked.
Note no attribution of the frequencies found is offered!

Method:
All frequencies and TSI were removed leaving just the polynomial.
a frequency was fitted to the main humps of the HADCRUT data (59Years)
Amplitude and phase of this were matched to the temperature record
The residuals were obtained and a simple curve fit added.
This showed a period of about 100 years.
A Further frequency was fitted to this curve fit changing phase and amplitude and frequency to give a near zero curve fit too the residual

This produces a good low resolution fit.

An attempt was made then to further reduce the residuals by subtracting TSI:

This does not lower residuals significantly.

All frequencies are then re-instated and phase and freq of the 2 frequencies and TSI adjusted for minimum residuals:

A reasonable fit! Note that this is significantly better fit than the previous post around the twitch in 1945. This is because of the artificially input 60 year and 100 year waves.

The future

This gives a reasonable fit for the whole of the HADCRUT time period 1850 to 2011.

None of the frequencies discovered produced the current rise so this has been trended with the following equation:
temp anom = 2.40389E-07(date)^3 - 1.34093E-03(date)^2 + 2.49320E+00(date) - 1.545547E+03

This trend produces the correct fit - It may be CO2 or something else. But I cannot see how a further cyclical parameter could produce the current rise.

Assuming that the trend is correct it produces the following prediction:



I DO NOT CLAIM THIS IS ACCURATE!!!!

However a very important point is that the trend is positive the whole of the time period. But the 2 major cycles 60 years and 100 years produce a substantially flat temperature from 2001 to 2023. During this period the trend continues rising and will add significantly to the 60 and 120 year cycles when they go positive.

This will allow "skeptics" 22 years of "I told you there was no warming" followed by an unfortunate, unexpected (to them) temperature rise.

TSI source still unknown but has little effect. The TSI has been extended to the future by splicing in data from 1900 a low level similar to this cycle?
=================================
All "sums" are done on monthly data and plots are filtered using a Hodrick Prescott filter (from the same source as the band pass filter) to remove high frequency components (HP filter gives a better end filter than moving average which has to terminate within 1/2 the averaging period from the end dates - in my opinion!)

The trend line is given by this polynomial:
y = 2.40389E-07x^3 - 1.34093E-03x^2 + 2.49320E+00x - 1.545547E+03
This trend fits the near horizontal 1800s and the increases since the 1960s

This could of course be a long period sine but if so then since the 1800s we have only gone perhaps half way through its cycle. this will only become visible in the next few decades if temperatures begin to decline.
The overall response with the increasing polynomial shows recent flatlining and even drops over the last year. The future prediction is for a decline for the next few years (the trend is still increasing remember!) as the 60y and 100y cycles go into a low period.



The frequency table (Frequency that would reconstruct the TSI data (9 years to 14  years + 21 years) has been artificially set to zero. The 2500 year data below is set to give 0 amplitude (no frequency found).

Period years	amplitude	Offset months
0.5012	0.023174092	6.60
0.8420	0.006750249	4.05
0.8900	0.010820097	0.59
1.7684	0.006095148	0.75
1.9373	0.006963534	2.85
1.9924	0.005092903	5.85
2.0384	0.004105465	9.20
2.1070	0.004651939	10.50
2.2649	0.007415539	10.35
2.3139	0.009177612	6.50
2.5418	0.006009001	4.50
2.6756	0.007867544	2.45
2.7458	0.004892064	4.65
2.8746	0.010417192	2.65
3.1555	0.005246582	0.56
3.2692	0.004667568	6.65
3.4699	0.004344144	9.34
3.5794	0.008309031	3.25
3.7750	0.008219473	3.90
3.9908	0.005512257	5.70
4.7031	0.005653949	6.25
5.1270	0.004919605	6.20
5.2257	0.004829187	9.05
5.7274	0.002816915	6.75
5.9866	0.004839718	2.05
6.2976	0.00394786	4.55
6.5986	0.002294266	3.50
7.5860	0.002836881	3.50
8.4414	0.002737653	3.35
10.0785	0	6.75
11 (TSI)	0.014289	72.00
11.4522	0	3.25
12.3828	0	4.05
14.7992	0	4.35
21.1787	0	4.45
35.8859	0.001785871	4.65
59.4167 (not Found By filtering)	0.041468451	3.35
103.5000 (not Found By filtering)	0.017897547	101.05
110.1917	0	5.15
2508.3333	1.56572E-06	4.15
2508.3333	1.56572E-06	4.10
2508.3333	1.56572E-06	4.10

Reconstructing HADCRUT from Cosine functions

A "for fun" project - not scientific!

Obtaining the repetitive frequencies:
Using bandpass filters set to a bandwidth of f/150 (where f is the lower frequency of the BP filter) the filter is swept from 0.5year to 150 years looking for amplitude peaks.
As each peak is found the output from the filter is compared to the output of a cosine wave set to the filter output amplitude and to the centre frequency of the filter. The cosine wave is is then phase shifted to align the two waveforms.
This is repeated for as many peaks as are found in the HADCRUT3V record. Outputs from the BP filters that fall into likely TSI frequencies 10, 11, 12, 14, 21 years have their corresponding synthesized outputs nulled. 0.5 year output is also nulled.

TSI is phase shifted, amplitude modified, then it added or subtracted from sum of cosines (shift is +48 months and is subtracted). However from the start of records to a round 1900 a lower error is provided by adding the TSI!

The remaining synthesized outputs are then summed and modified by a multiplier constant (approx 2.69) set by minimising the error between synthesized and original HADCRUT.

No low frequency peaks were found that could fit the rise in temperature. The rise is obtained by curve fitting the HADCRUT data with a 3rd order polynomial:
y = 2.40389E-07x^3 - 1.34093E-03x^2 + 2.49320E+00x - 1.54550E+03

This is added into the synthesised data to provide the output data.

Because the reconstructed data is just the sum of cosines and TSI is relatively unimportant the data can be extended to the future in this case to about 2017.
The plots show 2011 to be cooling to mid year.

The following plots show the effects of
No TSI
TSI subtracted over whole period
TSI added until 1904 and then subtracted to current date

This is a plot of the frequencies and amplitudes used to obtain these plots. Disabled frequencies are shown as Zero amplitude. The output at 11 years represents TSI amplitude

Temperature http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3vgl.txt

band pass filter http://www.web-reg.de/bp_addin.html

Period years	amplitude	Phase
0.501165	0 - artificially set to zero	3977.413703
0.841963889	0.006750249	54.17800684
0.890040278	0.010820097	107.3740716
1.768375	0.006095148	63.60020753
1.937269444	0.006963534	46.86597827
1.992377604	0.005092903	5.83418163
2.038391667	0.004105465	40.65715905
2.107	0.004651939	23.05126836
2.264857778	0.007415539	29.18466231
2.3139375	0.009177612	69.3504266
2.541777778	0.006009001	23.33534812
2.675555556	0.007867544	52.76779754
2.745788889	0.004892064	10.93806807
2.87455	0.010417192	40.32797096
3.155483333	0.005246582	75.96412155
3.269194444	0.004667568	6.630682169
3.579391667	0.008309031	40.98807579
3.7625	0.008048213	9.685707583
3.775041667	0.008219473	29.02716352
3.990758333	0.005512257	55.81368265
4.703125	0.005653949	6.33244882
5.127033333	0.004919605	6.188780868
5.225694444	0.004829187	34.08701089
5.727361111	0.002816915	6.746840105
5.986555556	0.004839718	33.42814581
6.297588889	0.00394786	23.39636614
6.598588889	0.002294266	3.380314824
7.586036111	0.002836881	34.9110203
8.441377778	0.002737653	34.79750828
9.121972222	0.006211276	17.3232396
10.07848333	0 - artificially set to zero	6.888853744
TSI  WAVEFORM  set at 11 yrs	0.006495  THE TSI DATA	48 Months
11.45221389	0- artificially set to zero	28.41974504
12.38280556	0- artificially set to zero	22.96039729
14.79916667	0- artificially set to zero	16.96130996
21.17869444	0- artificially set to zero	23.39280935
35.88588889	0.001785871	10.89922244
64.19661111	0.002785835	16.71200197
64.21333333	0.002785776	4.134103705
2508.333333	1.56572E-06	0.302469618
2508.333333	1.56572E-06	0.30372208
2508.333333	1.56572E-06	0.462315105

Problems:

Just what is the filter capability of the BandPass excel plugin? A better version is required.

Need a better trend profile than the 3rd order polynomial

Bandpass filter is not good doeas not detect longer periods - insufficient length of data

=======

Yes - I know that with enough parameters you can match anything with a sum of sines. But this plot gives a reasonable match for 160 years so a few years into the future may also be well matched!

It should also be noted that there is an underlying trend (the polynomial == GHG forcing?) which is always positive. But there are many negative slopes and zero warming areas synthesized.