Thoughts from January 1989
Part of full lecture (see below) dealing with Global Warming
Attribution and Misattribution
10 hours ago
2017/10/07
2017/09/27
I See No Ships (hurricanes)
Why is everyone trying to minimise the suffering of many thousands of people by claiming there has been a long period of no hurricanes in the Atlantic (adding to hit mainland US). There has been no real lull in the number of hurricanes:
e.g from Roy Spencer:
---------------------------------------
The 11-Year Major Hurricane Drought: Much More Unusual than Two Cat 4 Strikes
September 21st, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
e.g from Roy Spencer:
---------------------------------------
The 11-Year Major Hurricane Drought: Much More Unusual than Two Cat 4 Strikes
September 21st, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Weather.com published an article noting that the two Cat 4 hurricane strikes this year (Harvey and Irma) is a new record. Here’s a nice graphic they used showing both storms at landfall...
------------------------------------
Yet from Wiki there are these recorded cat 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes:
You have to be blind in more than one eye to miss these
|
2001
|
Iris
|
October 89
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
948 hPa
|
|
2001
|
Michelle
|
November 34
|
140 mph (220 km/h)
|
933 hPa
|
|
2002
|
Lili
|
October 23
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
938 hPa
|
|
2003
|
Fabian
|
August 31-September 5
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
939 hPa
|
|
2003
|
Isabel
|
September 11-14,
|
165 mph (270 km/h)
|
915 hPa
|
|
2004
|
Charley
|
August 13
|
150 mph (240 km/h)
|
941 hPa
|
|
2004
|
Frances
|
August 28-September 2
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
935 hPa
|
|
2004
|
Karl
|
September 20-21
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
938 hPa
|
|
2004
|
Ivan
|
September 9-14
|
165 mph (270 km/h)
|
910 hPa
|
|
2005
|
Dennis
|
July 810
|
150 mph (240 km/h)
|
930 hPa
|
|
2005
|
Emily
|
July 16,
|
160 mph (260 km/h)
|
929 hPa
|
|
2005
|
Katrina
|
August 2829
|
175 mph (280 km/h)
|
902 hPa
|
|
2005
|
Rita
|
September 21-22,
|
180 mph (285 km/h)
|
895 hPa
|
|
2005
|
Wilma
|
October 19,
|
185 mph (295 km/h)
|
882 hPa
|
|
2007
|
Dean
|
August 18-21,
|
175 mph (280 km/h)
|
905 hPa
|
|
2007
|
Felix
|
September 34,
|
175 mph (280 km/h)
|
929 hPa
|
|
2008
|
Gustav
|
August 30-31
|
155 mph (250 km/h)
|
941 hPa
|
|
2008
|
Ike
|
September 48
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
935 hPa
|
|
2008
|
Omar
|
October 16
|
130 mph (215 km/h)
|
958 hPa
|
|
2008
|
Paloma
|
November 8
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
944 hPa
|
|
2009
|
Bill
|
August 19-20
|
130 mph (215 km/h)
|
943 hPa
|
|
2010
|
Danielle
|
August 27
|
130 mph (215 km/h)
|
942 hPa
|
|
2010
|
Earl
|
August 30-September 2
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
927 hPa
|
|
2010
|
Igor
|
September 12-17
|
155 mph (250 km/h)
|
924 hPa
|
|
2010
|
Julia
|
September 15
|
140 mph (220 km/h)
|
948 hPa
|
|
2011
|
Katia
|
September 6
|
140 mph (220 km/h)
|
942 hPa)
|
|
2011
|
Ophelia
|
October 2
|
140 mph (220 km/h)
|
940 hPa
|
|
2014
|
Gonzalo
|
October 15-17
|
145 mph (230 km/h)
|
940 hPa
|
|
2015
|
Joaquin
|
October 13
|
155 mph (250 km/h)
|
931 hPa
|
|
2016
|
Nicole
|
October 12-13
|
140 mph (220 km/h)
|
950 hPa)
|
|
2016
|
Matthew
|
October 1,
|
165 mph (270 km/h)
|
934 hPa
|
|
2017
|
Harvey
|
August 25-26
|
130 mph (215 km/h)
|
938 hPa
|
|
2017
|
Jose
|
September 8-10
|
155 mph (250 km/h)
|
938 hPa
|
|
2017
|
Irma
|
September 59,
|
185 mph (295 km/h)
|
914 hPa
|
|
2017
|
Maria
|
September 18-20,
|
175 mph (280 km/h)
|
908 hPa
|
2017/06/02
What Roy Spencer Thinks of Europe
Just seen an exchange of posts on Spencer's Blog
stavro mueller says:
Salvatore Del Prete says: June 2, 2017 at 5:50 AM
Trump you did the right thing ! Excellent president the best we have ever had.
————
Really?
few other leaders have been made the ultimate laughing stock of the rest of the world.
Even Bush and Regan were more respected
stavro mueller says:
Salvatore Del Prete says: June 2, 2017 at 5:50 AM
Trump you did the right thing ! Excellent president the best we have ever had.
————
Really?
few other leaders have been made the ultimate laughing stock of the rest of the world.
Even Bush and Regan were more respected
phew!
2017/05/05
Nenana Ice Classic is over for 2017
The Nenana Ice classic is a non-profit corporation formed
by the residents of Nenana, Alaska, for the purpose of
conducting an annual ice pool contest under special
statutory authority enacted the first state legislature in 1960.
The Association was incorporated by the State of Alaska in
December 1972. Previously it had operated as an
unincorporated association.
The idea is to guess the exact time of the ice break-up on the nenana river
This contest has been running since 1917 and consequently gives an idea of thermal conditions on the river over time. Unless dynamite is used(!) the time of breakup is difficult to contest and calling "Fraud" even more contentious.
Three plots are given 2 timed from the start of the year and one from the vernal equinox (the latter uses a fixed point in solar time).
Looks like the break up occurred at a time predicted by the slope of the average
The idea is to guess the exact time of the ice break-up on the nenana river
This contest has been running since 1917 and consequently gives an idea of thermal conditions on the river over time. Unless dynamite is used(!) the time of breakup is difficult to contest and calling "Fraud" even more contentious.
Three plots are given 2 timed from the start of the year and one from the vernal equinox (the latter uses a fixed point in solar time).
Looks like the break up occurred at a time predicted by the slope of the average
2017/01/23
Arctic Sea Ice to December 2016
First plot shows rate of change per day - Note wild fluctuations from October
Second plot show Extent on day of year - A few have line fits which show that the extent reduction is a reasonable fit to a straight lineThe final plot shows the usual plus a rate of change per year.
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