Showing posts with label scafetta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scafetta. Show all posts

2012/12/12

Cycle Mania and Hadcrut3

From the fun school of posts here are a couple of plots that reconstruct hadcrut3v from a series of sine waves.
One shows reconstruction from cycles only; this has problems getting a good fit in the 1800s but shows rhat the next few years should be a period of reducing temperatures. The long period controlling the plot is 317 year long
The other is constructed round a smooth increasing trend. A better fit in the 1800s and still shows that despite the trend the temperatures will be flat for a few more years before increasing with a vengance. The underlying trend is defined by this polynomial
y = 2.40389E-07x3 - 1.34093E-03x2 + 2.49320E+00x - 1.545547E+03

Do either have any predictive skills. = NO

The most importasnt thing shown is in the the trending plot where  despite an ever increasing trend there is still a period where temperatures appear not to increase - from 1998 to 2018. this is due to an underlying 60year period being on a down part of the cycle. This is something that the "skeptics" cannot seem to grasp - CO2 is increasing so why is temperature static?.

The all cycle:
317 year and 60.1 year cycles controlling the "trend"

The trend+cycle plot

Trend and 59.75 year cycle controlling trend
So what curve are we "following" - only another 4 or so years will tell!.

Earlier posts:
http://climateandstuff.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/simulation

2010/10/14

Scafetta on 60 year climate oscillations

From the paper comes this plot:

Compare this to the HADCRUT 3V plot:



By filtering the temperature all the low frequency uplift since the 60s has been lost.
What therefore, has caused the recent warming?
According to the plot the last 10 years should have been cooling and the next 10 should see a 1C warming.
If I remember correctly the last 10 years have been stable and not reduced by 1C. If Scafetta is correct the world should be 2C hotter by 2025. Is this not a bit worrying?
and
WHY is the Scafetta plot so different to the HADCRU3V?????

OK so now add a 15 to 25 year filter and whats the comparison like?
Certainly a better fit but the trace obtained by filtering (red) is not what Scafetta gets (black). Also looking at the extreme s the temperature is loosing sync with SCMSS.