The clocked stopped on the Nenana River 2021-04-30 at 12:50pm. Plotting this to days from the vernal equinox gives the following plot
The ice breakup time is still close to the trendline shown in black
Showing posts with label Nenana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nenana. Show all posts
2021/05/23
2020/04/28
Nenana Ice Classic - Official Date and Time the River moved now Available
The movement of the tripod on the Tanana River ice tripped the time clock on 2020-04-27 at 12:56:00
Timing everything from the vernal equinox given this plot:
So this years data shows a continual decrease, year on year, from about 1964 onwards (on average!).
No thermometer juggling possible, no tree rings to bodge, no models to distrust. Is this a real indicator of AGW?
Timing everything from the vernal equinox given this plot:
So this years data shows a continual decrease, year on year, from about 1964 onwards (on average!).
No thermometer juggling possible, no tree rings to bodge, no models to distrust. Is this a real indicator of AGW?
2020/04/27
nenana ice breakup time coming soon
Tripod over but clock not tripped
update tripod clock tripped waiting for official result
2019/04/15
2019 Nenana - River Ice breakup
The Nenana Ice Classic for 2019 ended when the Tanana river ice broke up on 14th April 2019 at 12:21 AM.
Two days before breakup:
Plots below assume AST throughout the record.
A large drop this year (earlier breakup) but is within the bounds of noise in this very noisy system. It does follow the downward trend from the 1970s.
Two days before breakup:
Plots below assume AST throughout the record.
A large drop this year (earlier breakup) but is within the bounds of noise in this very noisy system. It does follow the downward trend from the 1970s.
2018/05/02
Nenana Ice Classic over for 2018
The clock on the watchtower was stopped at 13:18 on 1st May 2018 by the river ice moving.
the following plots show 3 versions of the same data. The Time from vernal equinox is probably most significant as this relates to solar position and not artificial human time.
Information here .
Going
the following plots show 3 versions of the same data. The Time from vernal equinox is probably most significant as this relates to solar position and not artificial human time.
Information here .
Going
2017/05/05
Nenana Ice Classic is over for 2017
The Nenana Ice classic is a non-profit corporation formed
by the residents of Nenana, Alaska, for the purpose of
conducting an annual ice pool contest under special
statutory authority enacted the first state legislature in 1960.
The Association was incorporated by the State of Alaska in
December 1972. Previously it had operated as an
unincorporated association.
The idea is to guess the exact time of the ice break-up on the nenana river
This contest has been running since 1917 and consequently gives an idea of thermal conditions on the river over time. Unless dynamite is used(!) the time of breakup is difficult to contest and calling "Fraud" even more contentious.
Three plots are given 2 timed from the start of the year and one from the vernal equinox (the latter uses a fixed point in solar time).
Looks like the break up occurred at a time predicted by the slope of the average
The idea is to guess the exact time of the ice break-up on the nenana river
This contest has been running since 1917 and consequently gives an idea of thermal conditions on the river over time. Unless dynamite is used(!) the time of breakup is difficult to contest and calling "Fraud" even more contentious.
Three plots are given 2 timed from the start of the year and one from the vernal equinox (the latter uses a fixed point in solar time).
Looks like the break up occurred at a time predicted by the slope of the average
2016/04/25
Nenana Ice Break Up Occurred 2016-04-24 15:39:00
The Annual Nenana Ice Classic is Over for Another Year
this one timed from vernal equinox
Still declining!
The Tanana River officially broke up on 2016-04-24 at 15:39:00
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
2 plots as usual
one timed from start of year
2 plots as usual
one timed from start of year
this one timed from vernal equinox
Still declining!
2015/04/25
The Annual Nenana Ice Classic is Over for Another Year
After an initial movement 2 days ago an ice-jam prevented full movement of the tripod and the clock was not stopped. However, the Tanana River officially broke up on April 24th at 2:25 P.M. Alaska Standard Time.
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Tripod moved but not moving
Not free of ice but no more tripod:
So how does this extended date fit in with previous data.
2 plots
one timed from start of year
this one timed from vernal equinox
Seems to be following a declining period with a few early peaks
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Tripod moved but not moving
Not free of ice but no more tripod:
So how does this extended date fit in with previous data.
2 plots
one timed from start of year
this one timed from vernal equinox
Seems to be following a declining period with a few early peaks
2014/04/27
The Tanana Ice Classic for 2014 is over.
2014/05/07 Updated with correct date !
The Tanana River officially broke up and the Tripod moved down river stopping the clock at 3:48 PM Alaska Standard Time April 25th, 2014
This makes last years very late breakup seem anomalous. But of course its only weather!
Adding this years figures to the data and you get plots which seems to follow the various global temperature profiles of: warming since 1970s until 1998 then static to present.
People have said the earlier times of the breakup is due to industrialisation upstream of Nenana - However the static/reversed slope seems to show that either industrialisation has reversed or perhaps, maybe, the temperature is having an effect!:
Top 2 traces show timings from beginning of the year
Final trace is timing from vernal Equinox
All plots use AK time:
The first splits the data into 3 segments
The second assumes that there is no upturn and hence only 2 lines
Smoothing is done with Hodrick Prescott filter from http://www.web-reg.de/hp_addin.html
Breakup data from
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
The Tanana River officially broke up and the Tripod moved down river stopping the clock at 3:48 PM Alaska Standard Time April 25th, 2014
This makes last years very late breakup seem anomalous. But of course its only weather!
Adding this years figures to the data and you get plots which seems to follow the various global temperature profiles of: warming since 1970s until 1998 then static to present.
People have said the earlier times of the breakup is due to industrialisation upstream of Nenana - However the static/reversed slope seems to show that either industrialisation has reversed or perhaps, maybe, the temperature is having an effect!:
Top 2 traces show timings from beginning of the year
Final trace is timing from vernal Equinox
All plots use AK time:
The first splits the data into 3 segments
The second assumes that there is no upturn and hence only 2 lines
Smoothing is done with Hodrick Prescott filter from http://www.web-reg.de/hp_addin.html
Breakup data from
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
2013/05/21
Nenana Ice Classic 2013 - the ice has moved 2013/05/20 14:41
Second latest time from beginning of the year
The record was set in 1964 which was a leap year. The movement happened 140.4868 days from January 1st
This year the movement occurred 139.6118 days from January 1st
Hmmm! Perhaps this all need rejigging to relate the breakup time to the vernal equinox and z-time
Anyway, here are 2 plots using AK time:
The first splits the data into 3 segments
The second assumes that there is no upturn and hence only 2 lines
Smoothing is done with Hodrick Prescott filter from http://www.web-reg.de/hp_addin.html
Breakup data from
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Heres the modified plot with days since vernal equinox instead of start of year:
So this year now becomes the latest date for breakup! Otherwise the shape remains.
The record was set in 1964 which was a leap year. The movement happened 140.4868 days from January 1st
This year the movement occurred 139.6118 days from January 1st
Hmmm! Perhaps this all need rejigging to relate the breakup time to the vernal equinox and z-time
Anyway, here are 2 plots using AK time:
The first splits the data into 3 segments
The second assumes that there is no upturn and hence only 2 lines
Smoothing is done with Hodrick Prescott filter from http://www.web-reg.de/hp_addin.html
Breakup data from
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Heres the modified plot with days since vernal equinox instead of start of year:
So this year now becomes the latest date for breakup! Otherwise the shape remains.
2012/04/25
Nenana Ice Classic - The River has moved!
The Nenana Ice Classic is a Non-Profit Charitable Gaming Organisation run to provide funds for local charities.
Read about it here:
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com
The object is to guess the date and time the Tanana river ice breaks up. The contest has been running since 1916.
Obviously there are many variables other than global warming that affect the break up - industry up stream, pollution,etc. However, there is no possibility of climate scientists changing the data and so is a true representation of changes in the local environment.
The last few years has seen an increase in the time since beginning of the year for the break up. This year has seen a large drop to 3rd lowest date.
Two plots are shown below. One shows a 2 line fit to the data showing fits from 1916 to 1965 and from 1965 to date.
The second is showing 3 splits that last year showed a possible up-tick from 2005 onwards (now reversed)
Read about it here:
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com
The object is to guess the date and time the Tanana river ice breaks up. The contest has been running since 1916.
Obviously there are many variables other than global warming that affect the break up - industry up stream, pollution,etc. However, there is no possibility of climate scientists changing the data and so is a true representation of changes in the local environment.
The last few years has seen an increase in the time since beginning of the year for the break up. This year has seen a large drop to 3rd lowest date.
Two plots are shown below. One shows a 2 line fit to the data showing fits from 1916 to 1965 and from 1965 to date.
The second is showing 3 splits that last year showed a possible up-tick from 2005 onwards (now reversed)
2011/05/06
Nenana Ice Clasic - 2011
Results are in for this year - The Tanana River officially broke up and the ice moved interrupting the timer on 4th May 2011 at 16:24. This is later than GW would predict!
[ps. watts refuses to post (or read?) items from me. Consequetly the greatest scientific blog on the web still shows that he cannot subtract 2 dates to give the breakup in days fromstart of the year. -
Here’s the context of the date in comparison with all of the others since 1917. (I calculated this to be day 124.683 in 2011, please check)
Actual count is 123.6833
Never mind no one notices anyway - what watts says is the truth even if wrong! CO2 snow anyone! (see this post)]
2010/04/30
2010/03/25
Nenana Ice Classic
The river usually freezes over during the months of Oct. and Nov. The ice continues to get thicker throughout the winter with the average thickness being 42" on April 1. Depending on the temperature snow cover, wind, ect., the ice may freeze slightly more and then start to melt. The ice melts on the top due to the weather and on the bottom due to the water flow.
River: The tripod is planted two feet into the Tanana River ice between the highway bridge and the railroad bridge at Nenana, just up-river from the Nenana river tributary. It is 300 feet from the shore and connected to a clock that stops as the ice goes out.
Prize: In 1917 railroad engineers bet $800 guessing when the river would break up. Last year, the winners shared the prize money of $303,895. Over $10 million has been paid during the past 92 years. Payoff will be made June 1st, 2009.
This contest surely cannot be accused of fraud. So plotting the breakup time from 1st January you get:
http://nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Not much happens until 1965 when a steady decline begins
Interestingly it shows the early 40s to be warm.
River: The tripod is planted two feet into the Tanana River ice between the highway bridge and the railroad bridge at Nenana, just up-river from the Nenana river tributary. It is 300 feet from the shore and connected to a clock that stops as the ice goes out.
Prize: In 1917 railroad engineers bet $800 guessing when the river would break up. Last year, the winners shared the prize money of $303,895. Over $10 million has been paid during the past 92 years. Payoff will be made June 1st, 2009.
This contest surely cannot be accused of fraud. So plotting the breakup time from 1st January you get:
http://nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Not much happens until 1965 when a steady decline begins
Interestingly it shows the early 40s to be warm.
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