Is it A Cycle or ....

Yet more on the "fun" project - not scientific!

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk".
Attributed to von Neumann

This post examines the reconstruction of the HADCRUT3V temperature trend using only cycles - ie. no increasing trend as previous posts.

Over the HADCRUT period the fit is pretty remarkable

For those who think that this must therefore show that the climate is cyclical remember the 313 year cycle peaks again in 1734

Of particular interest is TSI Using it inverted gives the best fit (there is a definite minimum error - set to the levels used here) both a 10 year and 11 year further cycle is required to produce the best fit.

There is a minimum for it non-inverted but this does not produce a s close a fit to HADCRUT.

Note that TSI has been extended to the future by repeating an earlier cycle.

As before there is a definite 60 year cycle required to give the best fit.

Period years	amplitude	Offset months
0.5010	0.042777927	8.4
0.8395	0.006721121	2.7
0.8910	0.011956496	1.23
1.7692	0.011506329	0.9
1.9373	0.012511862	2.75
1.9914	0.020307195	5.85
2.0401	0.013121261	9.45
2.1095	0.010688568	10.6
2.2573	0.015217979	9.6
2.3139	0.017312949	6.75
2.5418	0.017742208	4.4
2.6714	0.017960073	2.35
2.7608	0.01241483	4.95
2.8746	0.02728536	2.6
3.1638	0.019767012	0.96
3.2734	0.017009642	6.55
3.4699	0.014790104	9.58
3.5794	0.023019736	3.2
3.7684	0.025772472	3.35
4.0142	0.019228339	6.65
4.7240	0.026657551	6.64
5.1061	0.021538932	5.6
5.2466	0.016067587	9.55
5.7274	0.009953525	6.55
5.9782	0.023402958	1.85
6.2516	0.024228869	4.35
6.6070	0.015834147	2.95
7.5660	0.02278553	3.2
8.4405	0.021345634	3.35
10.0609	0.00919755	6.7
11.0000	0.0442959	12
11.5944	0.004951834	3.5
12.6169	0	4.55
14.9329	0.03287589	5
21.1833	0.049185788	4.5
35.8859	0.020848444	3.75
59.9167	0.118644507	3.05
101.8333	0.024368735	96
110.2167	0	5.35
290.2778	0	134.3
313.7089	0.392756974	2.3
2508.3333	0	4.15
2508.3333	0	4.15