The Total Cycle thing repeated

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk".
Attributed to von Neumann

The spreadsheet is available on request (11MB)


A plot of all the amplitudes and frequencies used. The 11 year cycle is TSI The scatter of low frequency low amplitude signals gives the noise

300 year and 60 year cycles superimposed on the constructed temperature record

A check to see if volcanic activity can be seen in the difference between actual HADCRUT3 and reconstruct



Remaider HADCRUT3-reconstruct with the used trailing moving average filtered and offset TSI

The reconstructed signal extended beyond the 2 ends of hadcrut3 note that the little ice age becomes a warm period using the 300year cycle

Acomparison of reconstruced cosines with no tren and reconstructed cosines + trend

Frequency/amplitude and phases of cosines + tsi used

Period years	amplitude	Offset months
0.5012	0.036054	8.3
0.8395	0.00624	2.9
0.8910	0.011773	1.23
1.7692	0.011506	0.95
1.9373	0.012512	2.7
1.9911	0.020375	5.8
2.0409	0.012712	9.55
2.1091	0.010769	10.55
2.2569	0.015195	9.55
2.3139	0.017313	6.75
2.5418	0.017742	4.4
2.6714	0.017162	2.35
2.7608	0.011035	5
2.8746	0.027285	2.55
3.1638	0.019767	0.96
3.2734	0.015463	6.55
3.4699	0.01479	9.64
3.5794	0.02302	3.15
3.7684	0.025772	3.35
4.0150	0.019124	6.75
4.7240	0.028562	6.68
5.1061	0.020193	5.5
5.2466	0.020888	9.55
5.7274	0.01294	6.65
5.9782	0.024963	1.85
6.2516	0.024229	4.35
6.6153	0.016764	3
7.5693	0.021827	3.2
8.4272	0.019945	3.25
10.0693	0.030061	6.7
11.0000	0.038659	-69
11.7532	0.013485	3.85
12.6336	0	4.55
14.9497	0.030069	5
21.2083	0.048414	4.45
35.6852	0.026464	3.75
60.0833	0.119432	3.05
101.8333	0.02669	96.15
110.2167	0	5.35
290.2778	0	134.3
317.0533	0.395701	2.3
2508.1661	0	4.15
2508.3333	0	4.1