tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2249983551893842827.post634820127340890570..comments2023-10-26T23:39:36.158+01:00Comments on Climate and Stuff: The Total Cycle thing repeatedthefordprefecthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07210786222021457913noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2249983551893842827.post-58371399185145258692012-11-12T15:16:08.713+00:002012-11-12T15:16:08.713+00:00Hi TFP,
It doesn't affect our result much if w...Hi TFP,<br />It doesn't affect our result much if we use Lean 2K or Lean 2005, because the background shape of the curve is the same, just the amplitudes of the 11 year cycles change in relation to it. The TSI scale on the Y-axis is pretty much immaterial as there are other ways of suitably calibrating that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2249983551893842827.post-30243761777961477202012-10-24T00:23:22.272+01:002012-10-24T00:23:22.272+01:00Hi TB
You seem to have reconstructed a discredited...Hi TB<br />You seem to have reconstructed a discredited TSI series. I believe even Lean now says this is not valid!<br /><br />However, the post on which you have replied usilises the usual Leif TSI plot (shown as 11.0000 in the table above) reconstructs HADCRUT temperatures.<br /><br />If you look at the latest plots (click on simulation) these have been made with around 5 frequencies The 60 year cycle is important as it is the one controlling the current flatlining. Unless you have a polynomial(*) to simulate the rising trend you have to include a large amplitude 317 year cycle. This then has the problem of fitting with temperatures in the 1800s<br /><br />I make no claim for the future predictions this is simply curve fitting! <br /><br />(*)<br />240.080E-9*x^3<br />-1.340E-3*x^2<br />2.493E+0*x<br />-1.547E+3<br />thefordprefecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07210786222021457913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2249983551893842827.post-75008307464295121012012-10-23T13:33:56.594+01:002012-10-23T13:33:56.594+01:00Hey TFP,
Have a look at our reconstruction of Lean...Hey TFP,<br />Have a look at our reconstruction of Lean TSI for some ideas on cycle periods.<br />http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/2011/02/21/tallbloke-and-tim-channon-a-cycles-analysis-approach-to-predicting-solar-activity/<br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />TBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com